US$, Oil & Stocks higher. Gold, E/U and Cable lower by Mary McNamara

The US$ has continued higher which has resulted in Gold slipping below $1,200 support. Oil has lifted too on the back of Iran uncertainty which has helped to boost energy stocks and, in turn, gave the broader S&P500 a boost. The S&P had initially opened lower open on the back of Alcoa and some other disappointing stock Q1 revenue reports.

USDX: I had mentioned yesterday that the FX indices were back in alignment and that this now supported LONG US$ and SHORT EUR sentiment trades. This play has been borne out overnight and the following E/U 30 min chart is testimony to this fact:


The index has now closed back above the 61.8% fib that I have been watching for. The next level it has to contend with is the previous high and ‘Double Top’ level of 100. The current sentiment is obviously bullish but a close and hold back above the 100 level would help to end any doubt here:


USDX 4hr Cloud: price continued to rally after breaking back above the 4hr Cloud and the recent bear trend line:


USDX daily: apart from watching for any break and hold back above 100 I am also watching for any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the daily chart:


S&P500 30 min: stocks opened lower after some disappointing Q1 earning reports but energy stock gains helped to lift the index overall:


S&P500 daily Cloud: watch for any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross as this would be deemed a ‘STRONG’ signal:


Gold 4hr: Gold has dipped with the stronger US$ and $1,200 support has given way HOWEVER price has yet to make a close and hold below the 4hr Cloud:

Gold4hr Gold4hrCloud


TC Signal: The Cable triggered a new TC SHORT signal off my 3 am candle close. Price is below the 4 hr Cloud BUT just above possible weekly chart trend line support. This support is from a neck line of a potential 2,400 pip H&S pattern. Thus, price may become quite choppy as it navigates this region and it may be safer to wait for a weekly close below this level to take this as a weekly chart trade. There is GBP Manufacturing Production data later today and this may impact price action. This pair is in a rough spot at the moment with UK election headlines promoting uncertainty which seems to be helping to spread some fear into FX trading with the Cable:

G/U 4hr: a new TC short off my 3 am candle:


G/U 4hr Cloud: below the Cloud now:


G/U weekly: the bigger picture here. A possible weekly chart 2,400 pip H&S:


Other FX: The A/U & Kiwi have held up well against the US$ thus far but watch today for Chinese CPI data. Any miss here could see them capitulate too:

E/U: lower but no clean 4hr chart TC signal.


A/U: holding up relatively well given the stronger US$. The 50% fib and the 4hr 200 EMA are a bit of a stumbling block. Watch for any new close and hold above these OR for further respect AFTER today’s Chinese CPI:


Kiwi: ditto here. Maybe they’re pinning their hopes on today’s Chinese data. Watch for any triangle break and close and hold above 0.76 as price is above the 4hr and daily Cloud:


U/J: has broken above a revised bear trend line but no new clean TC signal:


GBP/JPY: the 179 is keeping a lid on price here:


Loonie: still doing its ‘Handle’ thing for the time being:



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