US$ recovery continues BUT keep an eye on those 61.8% fibs!

The US markets were closed on Monday but some increased risk appetite was seen across Asian and European stock markets. This helped to moderate the recent Flight to Safety activity to the Yen and Gold and thereby allowed the US$ to keep recovering. US$ strength has kept a lid on the E/U, A/U, Cable, USD/CAD and Kiwi though making for some choppy trading action. This is all a bit of…’the thigh bone’s connected to the knee bone and the knee bone’s connected to the ankle bone…’action but this choppiness isn’t conducive to my TC system. However, I am looking for possible road blocks with these moves that may act as turning points and the 61.8% fib is one very handy tool in my trading arsenal.

USDX 4hr: this has continued to hold up off the 95.50 S/R level. When looking for any resistance to this pullback the 61.8% fib, which also happens to be near the 4hr 200 EMA, stands out as one hurdle worth watching:


Gold 4hr: this TC signal has closed off and the suspected pullback has evolved. I’m still looking for a test of one or other of the $1,200 region or even the $1,145-1,200 area as this is near the broken wedge trend line, 61.8% fib and 4hr 200 EMA:


Silver 4hr: this TC signal has closed off too and I’m looking for lower pullback targets here as well. The broken wedge trend line is near the $15 level so that is one target. Also, the 61.8% fib is near the 4hr 200 EMA and so that would be another on my radar for any deeper pullback:


FOREX: there is a lot of data today. NZD Retail Sales has just been released and there is NZD Inflation Expectations and GDT Price index data later today. There is AUD Monetary Policy Minutes, GBP CPI, EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling & German ZEW Economic Sentiment as well as CAD Manufacturing Sales data. 

E/U 4hr: this is conforming to the daily triangle and so I’m looking for pullback targets here too. The 61.8% fib of the recent swing high move is near the 4hr 200 EMA and so stands out as one S/R area for me to watch for any make or break activity:


E/J 4hr: similar here. Price has bounced up off 126 support but, for how long? The 61.8% fib of this recent swing low move is near the 4hr 200 EMA and so is one level I’d watch for make or break activity:


A/U 4hr: this is consolidating within a triangle so watch the trend lines for any breakout that evolves with momentum, especially today with the AUD data:


A/J 4hr: this too has bounced up off 80 support but for how long? A possible road block is at the 61.8% fib and 4hr 200 EMA zone so watch this for any make or break activity:


GBP/USD 4hr: this is still within a triangle although I have relaxed the trend lines given no momentum-based breakout:


NZD/USD 4hr: holding up near the 19 month bear trend line:


USD/JPY 4hr: this bounce continues and I’ll be watching to see if the combined efforts of the 61.8% fib, the 4hr 200 EMA and key 117 S/R level give this rally attempt any grief:


GBP/JPY 4hr: the 167 is the first hurdle here and, after that, watch for fibs and the 4hr 200 EMA:


USD/CAD 4hr: choppy still but under the 1.40 level:


EUR/AUD 4hr: well what do you know! This is headed back to the 1.55 S/R level:


EUR/GBP 4hr: the 0.77 continues to be a magnet for price action here:


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