US$: still pulling the strings! by Mary McNamara

The US$ has bounced off trend line support and this has weakened the recovery efforts of some FX pairs. US Stocks closed a bit lower for the day but not before posting recovery efforts during the US session. Upbeat US employment and Service PMI data helped to lift spirits it seems. Oil has continued to rally despite the stronger US$ due to heightened geo-political tension. A warning for trend traders is also discussed below.

USDX 4hr: note the bounce off the potential ‘Bull Flag’ trend line. There is US GDP and a Janet Yellen speech to come during Friday’s US session. Perhaps one or other of these may trigger an outbreak:


USDX daily: watching to see if the ‘Bull Flag’ evolves:


EURX monthly: 96 is still strong support here for now:


S&P500 30 min: stocks recovered during the US session:


S&P500 daily: closed a bit lower on the day. Note how yesterdays attempt at a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross has faded though!


Oil daily: heading to test $55 it seems. Will this turn into a ‘Double Bottom’ or ‘Bear Flag’ though!


Silver: higher on the day but pulled back with increasing US$ strength:


Gold daily: ditto here but note the hold above the $1,200 S/R level:


Forex: Currency action seems particularly choppy again and I have noted this before when both indices, the USDX and EURX, trade either side of their respective 4hr and daily Clouds. It’s a bit of a warning to be more careful and that it may be best to wait for some trend clarity before searching for new trend trades. Add to this, that the US$ is range bound for now in a Flag pattern and then these certainly aren’t optimum conditions for trend trading!

E/U: has bounced back down from the 4hr 200 EMA again. I’m watching for any trend line break and new TC signal:


E/J: there has been a trend line break BUT, FWIW, no new TC signal yet:


A/U: back below 0.785. Not falling as far or fast as one would expect given the bit of US$ strength though:


A/J daily: this pair is doing my head in!  This is my latest attempt to try and add some order here. This effort may fail though…. in much the same way that efforts to add order to my son’s room do :-(  Either way….: a potential ‘Bear Flag’?


Cable: rejected 1.50 despite upbeat UK Sales data. Has broken a support trend line but no new TC signal here either. The UK elections would no doubt be feeding concern here:


Kiwi: still loitering below the key 0.77 level:


U/J: I’m clearly not the only person with 118.5 marked on their charts! Note the bounce off this exact level:


GBP/JPY: a triangle break but not much enthusiasm:


Loonie: surprisingly the most ordered of them all. Conforming to the ‘Handle’ pattern for now:



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