The US$ looks set to remain under the 100 level although it did manage to print one 4hr candle above this key resistance. The US Weekly Unemployment data was better than expected but the miss with Personal Spending data might be keeping the US$ in check. For now, though, it’s between a rock and hard place as it holds above a recent support trend line but still under this 100 resistance. Despite this indecision with the US$ there have been 6 recent TC trend signals posted here that have yielded over 1000 pips; with just one signal giving half of that haul.
USDX 4hr: there was one 4hr candle that closed above the 100 but the daily candle will not match this. It’s getting tight!
NB: I am away from tomorrow until next Tuesday and updates during that time will be few and very brief.
TC Signals: the frequency and percentage of successful TC signals is increasing and this is giving me some hope that decent trending markets might be returning after months of fairly range bound activity…at least for me with my system using 4hr charts that is!
GBP/AUD 4hr: has given over 520 pips. This is how the chart of the GBP/AUD appeared when the signal was first posted:
This is the chart today…some 520 pips later! I mentioned yesterday that I’d expect reaction at the key 2.07 level and this is where price action has bounced! I would not be surprised to the signal close off sometime soon:
The 2.07 level is a major monthly S/R level here and so it might get choppy for a while whilst it negotiates this …..again! Watch for any impact from today’s AUD Private Capital Expenditure data and tomorrow’s GBP Second Estimates GDP data:
EUR/AUD 4hr: over 300 pips here. Also, watch for any impact from today’s AUD Private Capital Expenditure data:
E/J 4hr: limped on to give almost 100 pips:
Cable 4hr: as suspected this pair has bounced for now up and off the daily chart’s triangle trend line and the signal has now closed off. Watch for any impact from tomorrow’s GBP Second Estimates GDP data:
A/U 4hr: this new signal is dragging the chain and is fairly flat. Watch for any impact from today’s AUD Private Capital Expenditure data:
Kiwi 4hr: I mentioned yesterday that this was trying to form a new signal and that it has but it hasn’t moved too far just yet. Watch out for NZD Trade Balance data up shortly:
Other FX: I’m expecting the rest of the week to be fairly quiet due to the US holiday but there is NZD Trade Balance data and AUD Private Capital Expenditure data today and GBP Second Estimates GDP data tomorrow:
E/U 4hr: still wedged above support but below the recent trend line:
A/J 4hr: still hovering below 89 and didn’t trigger a new TC signal. Watch for any impact from today’s AUD Private Capital Expenditure data:
U/J 4hr: still in a holding pattern below the key 124 level:
GBP/JPY 4hr: now I suggested yesterday this might bounce up off the 61.8% fib and look how it’s given 120 pips in doing so! Watch for any impact from tomorrow’s GBP Second Estimates GDP data:
USD/CAD 4hr: another one in a holding pattern below a major, monthly-chart based 61.8% fib level:
GBP/NZD 4hr: also as suspected…this is stuck near the major S/R level of 2.30:
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