US$ & US data divergence: means? Plus, TC Signals update

It’s a question. Do you you know the answer because, if so, please enlighten me. The US$ has bounced despite weak US Retail Sales and PPI data and because, so I’m reading, because of encouraging Chinese export trade data. It spells divergence though and just whether that suggests a bounce or breakdown for the US$ index from this point remains unclear. Well, to me at least.

USDX weekly: I Tweeted yesterday to watch out for this developing weekly candle as it is currently a bullish-reversal Hammer candle and forming off strong support. Whether this is a bounce or the last hoorah is still unclear though. #Range-bound!


EURX weekly: range bound here still as well:


FX Index Ichimoku Alignment: the FX Indices remains divergent and this suggests better trading off shorter term charts during the US session.

Gold 4hr: I described earlier in the week just how important the weekly 200 EMA is for the metal and this continues to be the case:


Oil daily: this is trading above the daily 200 EMA for the first time since July 2014. Not a bad effort and any hold above would have to be read as bullish. The $45 zone is congested though:


TC Signals: there is a lot of data to watch for today and that could impact these signals: AUD Employment data, GBP Interest Rate and USD CPI & Weekly Unemployment Claims:

USD/CAD 4hr: this has not added anything to the tally. The BoC held rates and Oil chopped following opposing inventory VS production data. Care is need given the w/e Doha meeting and also given that the US$ could bounce off current support. #messy?


NZD/USD 4hr: this too has stalled given the positioning of the US$ index and that price action is butting up against a strong resistance level from the wedge trend line. Could go either way from here:


EUR/AUD 4hr: this moved on a bit:


I found this Tweet of interest this morning: Blake Morrow noting the current divergence between the EUR/AUD and the S&P500. Both are testing trend lines so watch for any make or break activity at these levels:


GBP/AUD 4hr: this TC SHORT signal did eventually trigger but is flat and note how price has essentially chopped sideways within a range for the last 5 weeks, albeit a slightly descending range. You need to be nimble with this pair at the moment:


GBP/NZD 4hr: this TC SHORT signal did eventually trigger too and has given a small pip haul:


Other Forex:

EUR/USD 4hr: still chopping below 1.15 and back testing the previous daily chart triangle trend line:


EUR/JPY 4hr: I wrote an article about the Yen pairs yesterday where I suggested a bounce here would not surprise. Yet to see much happen with this pair just yet though:


AUD/USD 4hr: this seems to be having some ‘Double Top’ thoughts as, even though stocks and Oil are higher, Gold is down and the US$ is up a bit. Watch with AUD Employment data today:


GBP/USD 4hr: holding above 1.40 and respecting the 61.8% fib for now. Watch with the BoE Interest Rate announcement tonight:


USD/JPY 4hr: this didn’t make too much progress considering recent US$ strength and the bounce with stocks. I’m keeping an eye out for any test of the 111 area though:


GBP/JPY 4hr: this is holding near a recent ‘Double Bottom’ near 154.50:


EUR/NZD: this has respected the 1.675 level, yet again, and made a full retrace. Keep an eye on the bottom triangle trend line now for any make or break activity:

E/N 4hr:


E/N daily:


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