The US$ index looks like it will close lower today despite upbeat US private jobs data. The psychological hurdle of the 100 level remains above current price and I’ve long been waiting for a clear make or break of this region. This weakness with strong data doesn’t help the US$ Bull’s case but Friday’s NFP might help clarify this situation.
USDX daily: weaker after upbeat private jobs data:
USDX weekly: still range-bound between 92.50 and 100 and has been for over 12 months:
Ichimoku Alignment: the FX indices are still trading with divergence on their daily and 4hr charts making suggesting chopping trading conditions which is exactly what I’ve been seeing! However, the USDX index is close to tipping in to LONG US$ alignment and the EURX is close to slipping in to SHORT EUR$ alignment. I’ll be keeping an eye on this as this new alignment, if it evolves, may trigger trending markets that would support LONG US$ and SHORT EUR$ trading.
USDX daily Cloud: below the Cloud but the resistance is only thin:
USDX 4hr: above the Cloud which is bullish:
EURX daily Cloud: back down trading within the Cloud. A close and hold below would be bearish:
EURX 4hr Cloud: below the Cloud which is bearish:
Summary: the US$ index looks like it will close lower despite upbeat private US jobs data. This follows on from a lower close recently after upbeat US CPI and US Core Durable Goods data and this pattern of weakness with strong US data must continue to baffle US$ bulls. The index sill has a bit of ground to cover to attempt the 100 level but perhaps Friday’s NFP might provide the launch trigger. For me, the index remains range-bound until there is a clear breakout from the 92.50 – 100 trading range.
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