US$: you go first?

Looking over the FX charts it appears to be a case of pairs hovering near key levels whilst watching the US$ negotiate the 100 level in a ‘you go first’ kind of mode. The fortunes of many seem to hinge on whether the US$ takes that big plunge past the 100 and, in much the same way as the image below, perhaps they might then get moving.

you go first

USDX 4hr: has touched up at the 100 level but hasn’t taken the big step just yet:


USDX weekly: A ‘Bull Flag’ or ‘Double Top’ has still to be determined here:


EURX weekly: Conversely, ‘Bear Flag’ or ‘Double Bottom’ here?


TC Signals: the AUD based signals weakened with yesterday’s continued commodity rout. One signal has closed off and the suspected signal brewing on the Cable, mentioned in my w/e analysis, did eventually trigger:

A/U 4hr: closed off with just 50.


A/U weekly: I had noted in my w/e analysis how the Aussie had broken up and out from a 6 week channel but failed to mention it had also broken up and out from a 14 month bear trend line. Thus, a pull back to test one or both of these trend lines should be of no surprise:


GBP/AUD 4hr: still open but hasn’t moved on:


EUR/AUD 4hr: still open, sort of, but hasn’t moved on:


E/J 4hr: doing little:


GBP/USD 4hr: This signal triggered yesterday and I expect price might react at the bottom triangle trend line. 


GBP/USD daily: Any move of the US$ above 100 might trigger a bearish triangle breakdown here:


Other FX: today’s data includes EUR German Ifo Business Climate, an RBA Gov Stevens speech, GBP Inflation Report Hearings and USD Prelim GDP.

EUR/USD: this is still poised above the major support region of the 1.045 recent low and the long term S/R level at 1.04. Price looks to be clinging on here and watching to see which way the US$ heads next. I would expect that any US$ move and hold above 100 would see the E/U testing this 1.04 region:

E/U 4hr:


E/U daily:


E/U weekly:


E/U monthly:


A/J 4hr: I’m watching the 89 level for any break or respect but the outcome it isn’t clear just yet:


Kiwi 4hr: hovering above support and seems to be also waiting to see what the US$ is going to do:


U/J 4hr: hovering under 124 as it, too, waits for US$ guidance:


GBP/JPY 4hr: is lower but didn’t trigger a clean TC signal as it has only just emerged from the 4hr Cloud:

GJ4hr GJ4hrCloud

USD/CAD 4hr: hovering just below the key 61.8% fib and also probably waiting for US$ and Oil guidance:


Gold weekly: lower for sure BUT I’m still seeing a potential bullish wedge forming here. The US$ reaction at 100 will most likely dictate the outcome here though:


Silver weekly: ditto here:


Oil weekly: a wonky Bear Flag or a bullish descending wedge?


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