The USD index has continued its rally and the stock pullback is still unfolding as per my plan with the NASDAQ yet to test 4,800 and the S&P500 yet to test a key 61.8% fib level.
USDX 4hr: onward and upward here. I do think the psychological 100 level may give it pause for thought though:
USDX monthly: I would expect the 100 level might give this index some grief. It is an S/R level on the monthly chart and near the 61.8% Fib of the previous bear move on the weekly chart. See charts below:
USDX weekly: note how 100 is near the 61.8% Fib retracement of the previous bear run:
EURX 4hr: the 96 ‘Double Bottom’ level didn’t offer too much support here. Terms like ‘Knives’ and ‘Butter’ come to mind!
S&P500 30 min: what a great 30 min trade for US session traders!
S&P500: I had expected the S&P500 to pull back whilst the NASDAQ pulls back to test 4,800. The first obvious pull back target on the S&P500 is the 61.8% Fib of the latest swing high move and we’re not there yet. Any continuation move lower will suggest that a deeper pullback could be on the way. I will then be watching daily and monthly support trend lines as per my w/e analysis.
NASDAQ: this has yet to test the ascending triangle breakout region of 4,800. Any further pullback below 4,800 would suggest a deeper correction and then I would look towards daily and monthly trend line support levels:
S&P500: this tested its breakout region before continuation:
DJIA: this did too!
XJO: The Aussie ASX-200 still has room to pull back too. The 61.8% Fib is down near 5,600 so I’d expect a test of that before continuation. I’m not at all worried here just yet.
Silver: this is down BUT not as much as you would expect given the USD situation. It’s at a critical juncture here…near the apex of the monthly chart triangle and recent wedge trend line support:
Gold: the ‘line in the sand’ level here is the $1,145 as this is the 61.8% Fib retracement of the major 2007-2011 bull run. Gold is holding above this for now but continued US$ strength may change this:
TC Signals: The E/J and U/J signals closed off.
E/J: this signal closed off after 280 pips but another signal triggered overnight:
Kiwi: moved on to give up to 220 pips:
U/J: closed off after 200 pips.
Loonie: this ended up moving on for up to 60 pips:
Other FX:
E/U: ‘falling knife’ material here!
A/U: has closed below 0.765 and looking for a move lower:
A/J: a break of trend line but no clean TC signal:
GBP/USD: this is trying to hold above the 1.50 level:
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