USD weakness at this major 100 level could trigger some ‘risk on’ by Mary McNamara

The USDX has failed at its first attempt at crossing the 100 level and I’ll be watching to see how further efforts progress. Any new weakness here could enable a bit of a ‘risk on’ bounce across some instruments and some look like their getting ready for just such an opportunity. US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims data may impact the US$ move here tonight though.

 USDX 4hr: failed at the first attempt. At a minimum, we could be in for some more consolidation here:

USDX4

Kiwi: this is the first one off and running and the TC signal has now closed off after the ‘Double Bottom’ bounce I had previously warned about. Note the 61.8% Fib is near the monthly pivot at 0.745 and not far from the 4hr 200 EMA.  Many traders will load up with new shorts from there and this will be a key level to watch. A close and hold above 0.745 would suggest this down turn might be over though…even if only for the short term:

Kiwi4

Cable: a close and hold back above 1.50 would be bullish BoE Gov Carney speaks tonight so watch out for any impact from this speech:

GU4

E/U: now this is one interesting chart! Note how a 61.8% fib pullback of the latest bear move would bring price back to the recent S/R level of 1.11!

EU4

Gold daily: Gold is trying to bounce up off the major 61.8% Fib level:

GoldDaily

S&P500: this may try and bounce up off its 61.8% Fib:

S&PdailyCloud

S&P500 30 min: might be setting up for a good 30 min chart breakout trend trade:

S&P30min

 NASDAQ: this has yet to properly test the 4,800 level though:

NASDAQmonthly

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