I don’t give a lot of coverage to the USD/CAD anymore but I was asked a question about this pair over the weekend. I Tweeted a reply showing some conflicting patterns on different time frame charts but thought I’d profile this pair given the batch of high impact CAD due out this week.
USD/CAD monthly: there is a monthly triangle in play. Note the importance of the 1.30 level and how price has been consolidating either side of that level over recent months:
Obvious targets for any break and hold below the bottom triangle trend line would be the:
- 50% fib of the recent swing high move which is down near the 1.20 S/R level and monthly 200 EMA.
- the 61.8% fib which is down near 1.15 S/R:
USD/CAD weekly: the weekly chart reveals a bit of a Bull Flag so watch the bottom Flag trend line as this ties in with the monthly chart’s support triangle trend line. Any recovery bounce would bring the 1.30 S/R level back into focus:
USD/CAD daily: To make things more confusing, whilst the weekly chart has a bullish look to it, the daily chart has a Bear Flag appearance. Watch the trend lines with this week’s data for any make or break activity:
USD/CAD 4hr: as above, watch the trend lines with this week’s data for any new make or break activity:
Calendar: watch USD/CAD price action especially around the release of CAD Trade Balance data, the BoC Rate statement and CAD Employment data.