Wed 26th: FX radar today

The US$ continues to hover just above 98.50 support and below 100 resistance and I’m sure I’m not the only one watching closely to see which way the index heads from here. Will it roll over under the weight of 100 or break up through this barrier? And, more importantly, what news item, if any one in particular, will be the trigger event to launch this move? There isn’t much ‘first tier’ data on the calendar today, just Crude Inventories, and so it could be a bit quiet today. Watch for any impact from second tier data though.

USDX: stuck between the proverbial ‘rock and hard place’.  The 100 level is resistance and the 98.50 is support for now but any monthly candle close below 98.50 could be painted as being bearish by way of conforming to the monthly H&S:

USDX 4hr:


USDX monthly: watch for any monthly close below 98.50:


Profit Targets: I have received some good replies to yesterday’s article about profit targets but would love to hear from some more people. Please read this article and share your thoughts. Thank you.

Yesterday’s TC results:

There were three signals that I noted in yesterday’s write up and these ended up delivering the following quota of pips before closing off:

  • A/U: 25.
  • A/J: 55.
  • NZD/USD: 15.

Three more signals triggered during the day and two of these are still open. A new Kiwi trade closed off for a small loss:

AUD/USD: this triggered another LONG during the US session which was then helped byt AUD CPI data. Before and after shots shown with signal giving up to 45 pips thus far:

au30min au30mincloud

Gold: this gave a triangle breakout and a new LONG signal and is still open for only 40 pips though. Before and after screen shots below:

gold30min gold30mincloud

Other FX and radar tradesit might be a bit of a quiet day but here are my thoughts:

AUD/JPY: this is back above 80, with help from AUD CPI, and I’m looking for this level to be new support:


AUD/NZD monthly: this bullish-reversal pattern is still developing here so keep an eye on this and the 1.09 level. My humble opinion is that any commodity recovery will stand the AUD$ in better favour than the NZD$:


USD/CAD: this pair is ‘planking’ along the long-term wedge trend line region. Watch for reaction today with Crude Inventories data though:


NZD/USD: this pair gave a failed LONG 30-min signal during yesterday’s US session but watch again later today when second-tier NZD Trade Balance data is released. Price action is range-bound with little momentum on the 4hr chart for now so keep that in mind too. 

kiwi4 kiwi30min

S&P500: drifted lower yesterday but still within the daily chart’s triangle:


EUR/USD: just going sideways for now. This might be waiting to see how Friday’s USD GDP data unfolds?


EUR/JPY: testing a bear trend line but still just edging sideways. The 114 level might be the one to watch again for any make or break:


GBP/USD: this pair didn’t trigger a decent TC signal yesterday but it did deliver a 100 pip triangle breakout. This was the chart posted yesterday morning:


This was the Cable chart just after the Carney speech which halted the 100 pip triangle breakdown:


Now? The Cable tested the previously broken trend line but has drifted lower:


USD/JPY: this pair just can’t seem to shake the 104 level:

uj4 uj30min

EUR/CAD: watch this one too with Crude data:


EUR/NZD: another pair that is ‘planking’ along a trend line. Watch later today with NZD Trade Balance data:


EUR/AUD: another pair that didn’t trigger a decent TC signal but have a triangle breakout. The breakout was helped during the Asian session courtesy of AUD CPI data. This was the chart posted yesterday when I suggested to watch the trend lines:


This is the EUR/AUD chart today:


EUR/GBP: no clean cut TC signal but this pair is holding above the key 0.89:



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