Themes for the week and potential opportunities
Risk appetite still positive, supported by recovery in the US and China and easy policy conditions. We should also watch the outcome of the Doha meeting for implications on Crude, Commodity Currencies (namely Cad) and risk appetite (since equities have been recently tracking Crude).
US: A quiet week for US data. We do have Fedspeak on Monday with the dovish voter Dudley, moderate Kashkari and dovish voter Rosengren later. Don’t forget the US NY Presidential Primaries on Tuesday.
EU: Main event this week is the ECB (Thur) which is set to leave policy unchanged but with dovish remarks by Draghi in the presser. The ZEW survey (Tue) to show further weakness. Flash PMIs (Fri) instead are expected to be steady/slightly positive.
UK: Chancellor Osborne will be quizzed by the Treasury Select Committee on the cost of a Brexit (Tue) while Carney speaks at the Economic Affairs Committee. Employment data (Wed) will be key and a 15k fall in the claimant count is expected, while the ILO unemployment rate should drop to 5.0% from 5.1%. Average earnings are expected to be up by 2.3% from 2.1% prior. Retail Sales (Thur) are expected +0.1% m/m after the -0.4% prior.
AUD & NZD: The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting are on Tuesday, while later in the day Governor Stevens will be jawboning in New York. New Zealand has the first release of the week with Q1 CPI (Mon), seen up 0.3% q/q, 0.6% y/y. There is also a dairy auction on Tuesday.
CAD: Core CPI (Fri) is expected to slow to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% prior while headline should drop to 1.0% from 1.4%. February retail sales are also expected to drop. BoC’s Poloz and Wilkins are scheduled to testify before the House of Commons on Tuesday.
One of the first tasks tomorrow will be to look for the news from Doha. The likelihood of a cut is low, but that would definitely push Crude higher, and drag Comm-Dolls with it. Vice-versa, the lack of any progress might turn the recent dip into a reversal.
Dax is consolidating near recent highs in search of a breakout, as is the Dow. But they both hinge on risk-appetite which will be impacted by the Doha round. Comm-Dolls are strong (especially Aud and Cad) but also need to incorporate the new information from Doha. The Euro remains the weakest currency going into the week.