Hello to everyone and welcome to 2017, a new year full of opportunities.
This week’s Game Plan will be somewhat different. Usually the first week of trading into the new year is about “getting sea legs back”: market participants will be slowly testing the waters, and paying attention to emerging themes and the tone of the year. I don’t personally look too deep into the first week of trading, as things usually get more interesting after the first US Non-Farm Payrolls reports is out of the way.
So this week is more about waiting & watching. Also, Monday Jan 2nd is also a Bank Holiday in many countries – including the all-influential UK and US. So we are also dealing with a short week to begin with. So during the week, the game is to take note of the emerging fundamental pieces and observe the market’s tone – from a distance.
US: it’s all about President Elect Trump, and how powerful his first 100 days will be. The Greenback and US equities have a long way to go, if Trump is anything like Reagan. This week we’ll be seeing ISM manufacturing & non-manufacturing, FOMC minutes and NFP. These prints will likely set the stage for the coming week and first move in 2017. The picture still seems rosy for the USD.
EUR: regional PMIs are issued, along with German Unemployment, CPI, Factory Orders and Retail Sales. We also have the ECB minutes. The main themes for Europe in 2017 continue to be political uncertainty & Italy’s Banking Crisis. There is still a downbeat tone for the Euro into 2017.
GBP: The main theme going into 2017 is still Brexit. Will it happen? When will it happen? This week’s data prints include Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI – but sentiment is still downbeat on GBP going into 2017.
CAD: the only comm-doll to have some decent event risk this week with Employment & Trade Balance due, along with Crude Oil Inventories. The Loonie is also between Scilla & Charybdis in 2017 with Crude Oil production cuts looming and NAFTA trade agreement changes.
There is also Chinese data output this week to stir things up.
It’s a privilege to be back with all our Trading Tribe Members & all other followers! Keep your trading Simple & Subtle in 2017!