Welcome to the start of Q4 trading. This week will probably be better traded with short-term models as geo-politics and key data will keep volatility high. Markets will need to digest Rajoy’s reaction to the referndum result in Catalonia; and markets will also be on the lookout for details of Trump’s tax plans. Meanwhile on Saturday, China’s Manuf. PMI data was unambiguously strong as large manufacturers raised production. The main scheduled market movers in the week ahead will be the RBA decision, ECB Minutes, and NFP.
USD: busy week ahead that culminates with NFP-Friday. Ahead of the big event we get trade balance, factory orders. construction spending, ISM PMIs.
GBP: In the UK we get the PMI figures which will be market-moving. UK PM May is under pressure and is losing confidence as a leader, ahead of the Conservative Party conference this week.
EUR: we need to wait & see how the Euro will digest the referendum outcome in Spain. Main market moving events will be ECB meeting minutes and final PMI data for the Eurozone & Germany. Markets will also focus on the Eurozone unemployment and retail trade; and Germany factory orders.
CAD: couple of decent events for the Loonie as well: employment and trade balance.
AsiaPac: for Japan, analysts are eyeing Tankan’s quarterly business condition results. Australia has a busy week with the RBA policy decision, AIG Services Index and retail sales. Meanwhile in China, markets will be closed to celebrate the National Day Golden Week.
Going into the week, things aren’t exactly clear. From a monthly perspective,it would seem that further losses for Cad, Aud & Jpy are possible, against a more positive outlook for the USD. So I’ll maintain that bias with caution this week.
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