Weekly Game Plan 20.2.17

Going into this week, remember US & CAD markets will be closed on Monday. There is little meaningful data on the calendar this week and when that’s the case, expect surprizes.

USD: FOMC Minutes should be irrelevant given Yellen’s “spoiler” from her testimony last week. The only thing to pay attention to will be whether or not there have been signs of internal division on policy stances. Beyond that we will hear from 3 Fed officials: Lockhart (Thur), Mester (Sunday), Kashkari (Tue), Harker (Tue).

EUR: Focus will be on PMIs (Tue), Ger IFO (Wed). We might get some jitters on Greece during the Eurogroup meeting Monday.

GBP: BoE’s Carney and MPC’s Haldane, Vlieghe and McCafferty will testify to the Treasury Select Committee (Tue) on the February Inflation Report. Beyond that, the second estimate for Q4 GDP is out on Wednesday.

CAD:   The Loonie will be influenced by earnings reports, Retail Sales (Wed) & CPI (Fri). BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins participates in a panel on “Regulations in the financial services sector”
(Tue) but market risk is fairly low.

Asia: RBA minutes will be released (Tue) & later in the day Lowe will be on the wires. Lowe is also testifying to the Parliament Committee (Thur).

Going into the week, I remain bullish on the Dow & on bullion. Within FX it’s slim pickings. Marginal downside seems to be returning in GBP vs. Cad & Aud, and Euro vs. Jpy. AudNzd remains bullish.

Good Luck!

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