1. Themes for the Week
- Policy Divergence: the ECB meeting and the NFP report will most likely cause large moves this week. Draghi is expected to ease policy further, and NFP is expected to reinforce the FOMC’s rate hike scenario. For the US, we also have ISM PMIs (Tue & Thu) and some Fedspeakers. We will also have German unemployment and EU PMIs to take note of.
- Macroprudential policy action could buy the BoE time before raising rates. Gbp might have some volatility with the PMIs out this week, but is definitely not the protagonist this week.
- RBA and BoC also in focus, but no change expected from either.
- OPEC meeting on Friday will be worth watching, since there have been signs of increased cooperation from Saudi officials.
2. Charts in line with these themes