It will be a busy week data wise, despite the July 4th US holiday and NFP-Friday. Expect Monday’s US session to be slow also as many will take advantage of the long weekend. On Saturday, ECB’s Weidmann stated the ECB has started discussions on moving away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. The central bank convergence theme will likely persist this week ahead with the RBA meeting and Fed/ECB Minutes.
US: main event will be NFP-Friday, with participants wondering if the data will justify the FED’s hawkish guidance. Beyond that, we will have Fed Minutes from the June meeting. ISM Manufacturing (Mon), Durable Goods and Factory Orders (Wed), ADP/ US trade/ISM non-manufacturing (Thurs) will also help shape up expectations. On Friday we’ll also have the July 2017 Monetary Policy Report to Congress which might gather some attention.
EU: less influential data from EU this week with the exception of ECB minuted (Thur). EZ Manufacturing PMI and EZ unemployment (Mon), Services PMI and Retail Sales (Wed), German Industrial Orders (Thur), German IP (Fri).
UK: while PM May attempts to hang on to her post, markets will look to Manufacturing PMI (Mon), Services and Construction PMI (Wed), IP and UK Trade data (Fri) in order to gauge Carney’s recent hawkish tilt. Carney will also be on the wires on Friday.
Cad: holiday on Monday, then we only have Trade Balance (Thur) and Employment (Fri).
AsiaPac: China data in the week ahead includes Caixin PMI (Mon) & Caixin Services PMI (Wed). Watch also the Tankan survey for Japan (Mon).
For Australia, there are a growing number of market participants looking for a hawkish tilt in the RBA’s statement. However, most analysts expect the RBA to acknowledge improving employment, but fall short of moving away from a “neutral” bias. Other data includes Building Approvals and job ads (Mon), then Retail Sales (Tue) and Trade Data (Thur).
Going into the week, I am bearish on Dax/Eurostoxx; I remain bullish on GBP & CAD vs. USD & JPY; I remain bullish on Crude.
by Jul 2, 2017 – 6.19 pm|
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