Themes for the Week and potential opportunities
BoC’s Poloz still cautious on Canadian Economy over the weekend: http://in.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-idINKCN0YQ0P4
USD: Quiet week ahead. Highlight likley Yellen’s speech Monday (17.30 GMT), with Rosengren also speaking from Helsinki. No useful data for the US this week.
EUR: Quiet week for the EU as well. Ger factory orders (Mon) are expected lower, but Industrial Prod. (Tue) is expected higher. EU final GDP (Tue) not likely to surprize, and Ger CPI (Fri) also unlikely to surprize. Overall, dull week expected.
GBP: Industrial prod. & Manuf. Prod. (Wed) expected marginally higher as well as trade data (Thur). Construction output (Fri) expected higher as well. So on balance, a positive tilt in expectations for Gbp. However, Brexit/Bremain risk is still the main driver so first & foremost watch Prime Minister David Cameron and UKIP leader Nigel Farage answer questions from the audience on an ITV EU referendum programme (Tue). On Thursday, ITV stages an EU referendum debate between leading politicians from both ‘remain’ and ‘leave’.
Comm-Dolls: major action this week will be on the Comm-Dolls. The RBA (Tue) is the main event in Australia, with no change & a mildly dovish tone expected. Then we have AU lending (Wed) expected higher. RBNZ (Thur) also expected to leave policy unchanged. As for Canada, employment data (Fri) is the key release with limited impact from Alberta Wildfires expected. Ivey PMI (Tue) the other focus, along with BoC’s financial system review & Poloz speech (Thur).
CHN: comm-dolls and risk appetite will be impacted by CHN Trade data (Wed) and CPI (Thur)
Going into the week I’ll be focused on Aud & Nzd strength vs. USD and Gbp weakness. I’ll also look to match risk on/off attitude with the recent JPY strength and play UsdJpy or GbpJpy shorts. Finally, I’ll be monitoring Cad for potential developments as data emerges during the week.