1. Themes for the Week
– No US data on tap this week, but loads of Fedspeak: most interestingly Evans (Thursday, 15.15 GMT) and Rosengren (Monday, 17.00 GMT) which have previously argued against an imminent rate rise. If they have changed their views, then the USD will likely get another shot of life. We also have Yellen, Bullard, Lacker and Fischer on Thursday, as well as Mester on Friday.
– China: Central Banks worldwide continue to speak about “global growth concerns” as a reason for loose monetary policy…but they are usually just talking about China. China’s trade report will affect the tone of the markets early this week. The main focus will be on the export numbers. Later in the week we have CPI inflation, credit figures, retail sales,industrial production and asset investment.Aussie & Kiwi, but also Euro will feel the negative vibes if there will be any disappointments from China.
– EU GDP figures for Q3 are scheduled for release on Friday. The market is expecting a drop, evidently. Before that however, several members of the ECB Governing Council are set to speak, including President Mario Draghi (Wednesday, 13.15 GMT). Focus here will be on whether he maintains the very dovish tone from the ECB meeting.
– UK Unemployment report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, and while the analysts are pointing at better conditions, I see it more as a possibility to sell a rally in Gbp given the recent dovish stance of BoE members.
2. Charts In Line with these Themes