EURJPY: 132.65. After opening last week with a spike low, in falling sharply to 130.14, the cross then spent the week recovering and consolidating below the 200 HMA (134.00), before drifting off to finish pretty much where it closed the previous Friday. We look likely to be in for more choppy trade below 134.00 over the next few days, which would allow the dailies to go some way to unwinding their oversold condition, and having closed the month above both the 50% pivot of 169.95/94.10 (131.90) and the 100 Month MA (131.25), these will continue to provide decent support. The weekly/monthly indicators are both suggesting lower levels lie ahead though, and so we could yet see a retest of the 130.10 low, and then below 130.00, the cross would head towards the Fibo support at 128.50 (38.2% of 94.10/149.77) and then the 200 Month MA at 128.25. Below here, although some way off, would suggest a run towards 126.40 (76.4% of 119.74/149.77).
On the topside, the 100 HMA is at 133.40 and beyond that the 200 HMA lies at 134.10. A break of this would trigger stops and take the cross back towards 134.70 and perhaps to 135.00. If we see it up here, I would be looking to sell the cross with a SL placed above the 100 WMA currently at 136.30.
Selling rallies remains the theme.
AUDJPY: 91.30. The cross duly headed sharply lower last week, taking out some important support levels in falling all the way to 90.85, before coming to rest right on the March 2014 low at 91.15. Further losses look possible, with the next realistic targets being the 76.4% Fibo support at 90.25 and then the 3 March 2014 low at 90.05. Below 90.00, and the nearby 50% Fibo pivot of 74.44/105.43 at 89.80, there is little to hold the cross until we arrive at the 200 WMA, currently at 89.07, although I am not sure that we are headed down here yet.On the topside, we could yet see a squeeze towards 92.15 and even towards 93.00 or perhaps to 93.65 (23.6% of 102.84/90.85) although I don’t really see it back up here in the near term. Selling rallies still appears to be the plan, but I would not be in too much of a hurry as I suspect the price action will remain choppy, with the RBA decision, tomorrow, to give us the next major directional move.
NZDJPY: 85.30. The cross has broken and closed below the 3 year rising trend support and having reached the 100 WMA (84.75) is currently sitting just above it. Further losses look to be on the cards and if 84.75 is taken out, then look for a run towards the Oct 2014 low at 83.35 and then potentially to the Fibo 23.6% of 44.20/94.03 support at 82.30.The topside will see sellers at the previous support-now-resistance currently at 86.50 and the 200 HMA at 86.75. If we saw it up here I suspect it would be a good sell opportunity, with a SL placed above the 100 HMA currently at 87.70, or preferably above the 28 Jan high at 88.30, although that is some way off.
GBPAUD: 1.9395 The cross headed strongly higher last week, reaching levels last seen in August 2009, when Cable was in steep decline. Now it is the turn of the Aud to feel the pain and it looks as though there could be more of the same ahead, with the Sept 2009 high at 1.9580 to provide the next nearby resistance ahead of the more distant, August 09 high at 2.0266. This is still some way off and the monthly RSI’s are showing some divergence, so caution is warranted.
If the RBA do not cut, the Aud will squeeze higher, pushing the cross back below the previous 1.9307 high (17 Dec 2014) towards Fibo supports at 1.9227/1.9055 (23.6/38.2% of 1.8339/1.9499). I prefer to buy dips, but would rather wait to see if the cross returns to levels closer to 1.90 before pulling the trigger.
EURGBP: 0.7495. After opening last week with a gap lower, to new trend lows of 0.7404, the cross spent the week recovering in consolidative trade, reaching the week’s high on Friday of 0.7535 before closing at around 0.7500. The dailies are oversold and thus we could see some more corrective action, which could see a squeeze towards minor Fibo resistance at 0.7550 (23.6% of 0.8037/0.7404) and possibly to 0.7600 or even to 0.7640 (38.2%). I would be surprised to see it up here, but if so it would present a good sell opportunity given the negative feel of both the weekly and monthly charts.Having broken the long term rising trend support at 0.7555, (which will now act as resistance), below last week’s low will find support at the 200 Month MA at 0.7355 ahead of equally strong support at the major Fibo level at 0.7250 (61.8% of 0.5680/0.9802). I think we are heading in this direction, but it could take more bad news from Greece (probably not too far away!) or some unduly soft EU data before we can make the run to the downside.
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