Look to buy dips in NZD/USD to 0.6620 with a stop at 0.6550. Our process remains constructive NZD, even as risk assets have traded poorly after China’s easing last week. The stall in dairy prices last week only slightly damaged the NZD and it has managed to remain inside a 0.6700-0.6900 consolidation range. The RBNZ may give the NZD a slight lift this week within that range. Over the next month, we see scope for NZD/USD to rise above 0.6900, helped by a decent NZ economic data pulse and a contrasting soggy US data pulse.
Look to sell strength in EUR to 1.1220 with a stop at 1.1345. Our process was bullish EUR early last week and a buy order was filled and quickly stopped in the wake of Draghi’s dovish policy signals last week. Our signals have shifted sharply and now favour selling strength. EUR weakness likely extends into the ECB’s 3 Dec meeting, matching depreciation trends that have typically played out in EUR, the USD and JPY ahead of past major QE/monetary easing announcements in recent years. Price action is unlikely to be one-way though. Downside risks to US Q3 GDP (consensus at 1.5% versus the more accurate Atlanta Fed Nowcast at 0.8%) and a probable small downgrade to the Fed’s assessment of current conditions might also temporarily stabilise EUR. Bounces into 1.12 there to be sold, targeting the bottom of the currency’s bigger 7mth range (1.0820).
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