While a positive update on the labour market is welcomed, we are very cautious about taking this month’s number at face value. Firstly, the annual pace of employment growth of 2.7%yr look way to strong compared to our indicators of the labour market. Secondly, the original data suggest total employment rose 92.7k when normally it is a significant negative in October (you have to go back to 1979 to find a small positive for October).
It does appear the ABS is still having problems with the original data following changes to the supplementary surveys. As such, we are cautious about reading too much into today’s very strong update.
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