I went to our local ATAA meeting on Monday night and the focus of the presentation was on Stock Markets: Cycles and Seasonality. There was a cycle noted on stocks, and more specifically, the DJIA index that caught my attention: the cycle being that the 7th year of each decade generally results in a significant pullback. I’ve scrolled back through the decade charts of the DJIA index and, whilst I do see some deep pullbacks in this year during some decades, I’m not sure that this really constitutes a ‘cycle’. Still, it might be worth keeping in mind as we head toward 2017!in
The way I see the various decades for pullbacks is as follows:
1950: a little pullback.
2010: ???? To be determined!
So, at this point, the noted cycle is obvious in 5 out of 10 decades, as I see it. Let me know what you all think though!
I did show the presenter the cycle chart that I am keen on; the one on the S&P500 (a similar pattern is on the DJIA though too):
Maybe we can both be correct! He was suggesting that 2017 could see a pullback and I am still wondering if 1,600 might get a test before bullish continuation.
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