YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen opened at Y102.30 having found resistance at Y102.36
during both the Asian and European sessions, with euro-yen at Y136.52 at the
lower end of a Y136.42-Y136.89 range following the soft German ZEW survey data.
Euro-yen remained under pressure in early NY trading which eventually forced a
fresh intraday low of Y136.37, which was also reflected in dollar-yen which also
made an intraday low of Y102.09 in tandem, just above the 100 dma of Y102.08.
The dollar’s recovery was aided by better US JOLTS Jobs opening data as it
rallied to Y102.25 and after dipping to Y102.14 later extended to Y102.28 in
range trading markets. Euro-yen fared better staging a solid recovery off its
daily low finding resistance initially at the day’s 50% level of Y136.63, which
then extended in quiet trading conditions to Y136.67. Wednesday’s focus will be
on Japans’s Q2 GDP data which is expected to contract -1.8% SA QoQ.
Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y103.20 Large stops
*Y103.15 30 Jul high
*Y103.00 Offers on approach (Y102.93 – 5 Aug high)
*Y102.80/85 Medium offers, stops
*Y102.65/70 Medium offers (Y102.66 – 6 Aug high)
*Y102.50 Medium offers (Y102.46 – 7 Aug high)
*Y102.32/36 200-day ma, Intraday high
*Y102.25 ***Current mkt rate ***
*Y102.09/08 Intraday low, 100-day ma
*Y102.00 Demand on approach (Y102.02/00 – 11 Aug low, 21dma)
*Y101.95/93/90 55-day ma, 50% of Y101.51-102.36, Market stops
*Y101.80 Medium demand
*Y101.50 Offshore demand, stops (Y101.51 – 8 Aug low)
*Y101.42/32 24 & 23 Jul lows
*Y101.20 Medium demand (Y101.27 – 55-week ma)
during both the Asian and European sessions, with euro-yen at Y136.52 at the
lower end of a Y136.42-Y136.89 range following the soft German ZEW survey data.
Euro-yen remained under pressure in early NY trading which eventually forced a
fresh intraday low of Y136.37, which was also reflected in dollar-yen which also
made an intraday low of Y102.09 in tandem, just above the 100 dma of Y102.08.
The dollar’s recovery was aided by better US JOLTS Jobs opening data as it
rallied to Y102.25 and after dipping to Y102.14 later extended to Y102.28 in
range trading markets. Euro-yen fared better staging a solid recovery off its
daily low finding resistance initially at the day’s 50% level of Y136.63, which
then extended in quiet trading conditions to Y136.67. Wednesday’s focus will be
on Japans’s Q2 GDP data which is expected to contract -1.8% SA QoQ.
Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y103.20 Large stops
*Y103.15 30 Jul high
*Y103.00 Offers on approach (Y102.93 – 5 Aug high)
*Y102.80/85 Medium offers, stops
*Y102.65/70 Medium offers (Y102.66 – 6 Aug high)
*Y102.50 Medium offers (Y102.46 – 7 Aug high)
*Y102.32/36 200-day ma, Intraday high
*Y102.25 ***Current mkt rate ***
*Y102.09/08 Intraday low, 100-day ma
*Y102.00 Demand on approach (Y102.02/00 – 11 Aug low, 21dma)
*Y101.95/93/90 55-day ma, 50% of Y101.51-102.36, Market stops
*Y101.80 Medium demand
*Y101.50 Offshore demand, stops (Y101.51 – 8 Aug low)
*Y101.42/32 24 & 23 Jul lows
*Y101.20 Medium demand (Y101.27 – 55-week ma)
07:37:22
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar began the US session at $1.3345 having fallen to a low
of $1.3336 in the European session following a much softer German ZEW report
with both the current situation and expectation components well below market
forecasts. However support was seen from large option expiries between
$1.3340-50 ahead of the Aug 6 low of $1.3333 and this continued to provide some
demand as an early dip to $1.3341 found some gamma buying which led to a gradual
recovery back to the daily 50% level of $1.3361 where sellers re-emerged.
Another dip ahead of the option expiries found demand at $1.3351 and rallied
back to $1.3359 as cable led the way trying but failing at first attempt to
climb back above $1.6800. Stronger headline US JOLTS Jobs Opening data helped
put a modest bid into the dollar leading to renewed euro sales and despite lower
revisions to the previous it fell back to $1.3345. Once again led by cable which
broke above $1.6800 the euro found fresh buyers and it grinded higher eventually
to $1.3370, before easing back ahead of Wednesday’s German/French CPI and US
Retail Sales data.
MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3500 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3475/85 Strong offers/$1.3482 T-line off May high
*$1.3445-50 Strong offers/$1.3445 Aug1 high post NFP
*$1.3433 Aug8-Aug4 highs/Trader reports like fading $1.3430-50
*$1.3396 NY high Aug11
*$1.3386 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3368 ***Current mkt rate ***
*$1.3340-50 Area of large option expiries
*$1.3336 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3368
*$1.3335-30 Strong demand/$1.3333 Aug6 (fresh 2014 low)/Stops
*$1.3325 Barrier
*$1.3318 T.Line off Apr4 (supported Aug6 $1.3333)
*$1.3300 Strong support/$1.3300 Barrier
*$1.3295 Nov7 low(key support)
*$1.3280/70 Medium demand/$1.3271 1.618% swing $1.3333-1.3433 y
of $1.3336 in the European session following a much softer German ZEW report
with both the current situation and expectation components well below market
forecasts. However support was seen from large option expiries between
$1.3340-50 ahead of the Aug 6 low of $1.3333 and this continued to provide some
demand as an early dip to $1.3341 found some gamma buying which led to a gradual
recovery back to the daily 50% level of $1.3361 where sellers re-emerged.
Another dip ahead of the option expiries found demand at $1.3351 and rallied
back to $1.3359 as cable led the way trying but failing at first attempt to
climb back above $1.6800. Stronger headline US JOLTS Jobs Opening data helped
put a modest bid into the dollar leading to renewed euro sales and despite lower
revisions to the previous it fell back to $1.3345. Once again led by cable which
broke above $1.6800 the euro found fresh buyers and it grinded higher eventually
to $1.3370, before easing back ahead of Wednesday’s German/French CPI and US
Retail Sales data.
MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3500 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3475/85 Strong offers/$1.3482 T-line off May high
*$1.3445-50 Strong offers/$1.3445 Aug1 high post NFP
*$1.3433 Aug8-Aug4 highs/Trader reports like fading $1.3430-50
*$1.3396 NY high Aug11
*$1.3386 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3368 ***Current mkt rate ***
*$1.3340-50 Area of large option expiries
*$1.3336 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3368
*$1.3335-30 Strong demand/$1.3333 Aug6 (fresh 2014 low)/Stops
*$1.3325 Barrier
*$1.3318 T.Line off Apr4 (supported Aug6 $1.3333)
*$1.3300 Strong support/$1.3300 Barrier
*$1.3295 Nov7 low(key support)
*$1.3280/70 Medium demand/$1.3271 1.618% swing $1.3333-1.3433 y