EURUSD: 1.2299 |
EurUsd made some minor gains in reaching a high of 1.2305 in EU/NY trade, but then gave up on the topside and has spent the rest of the day consolidating its recent gains while waiting on tomorrow’s ECB meeting, and ahead of that, today’s PMIs. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
Preferred Strategy: A neutral stance seems prudent again on Wednesday, and with traders now awaiting tomorrow’s ECB Meeting another rangebound session would not surprise, although the daily charts do look positive and a return to the trend high should not be discounted. A bull flag seems to be building, which would have a target at around 1.2700 although that is currently a long way off and we need to take out 1.2320/30 resistance first, but buying dips is preferred.Buy EurUsd @ 1.2220. SL @ 1.2175, TP @ 1.2350 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
1.2400 | Minor | 1.2260 | Minor | ||
1.2385 | Minor | 1.2222 | Session low | ||
1.2335 | Minor | 1.2213 | 22 Jan low | ||
1.2322 | 17 Jan high | 1.2165 | 17 Jan low | ||
1.2305 | Session high | 1.2140 | 23.6% of 1.1553/1.2295/200 HMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Eurogroup Meeting, EU/US Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, US Existing Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change
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USDJPY: 110.31 |
US$Jpy has ended the day near the lows following yesterday’s slightly more upbeat BOJ outlook on inflation, with the Yen in demand as the Jpy shorts continue to be squeezed. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: The momentum indicators are now generally pointing lower and it would seem to be the downside that will come under pressure on Wednesday. If so, there will be a fair bit of support near 110.00 so any downside momentum, if seen, should be fairly slow but a break of 109.90/110.00 would see an acceleration towards 109.50. Right now the topside looks limited to 111.00 although I am not sure we see it up there today. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
111.70 | 200 DMA | 110.24 | Session low | ||
111.47 | 18 Jan high | 110.19 | 17 Jan low | ||
111.21/17 | 22 Jan high / Session high | 110.00 | Rising trend support | ||
111.00 | Pivot | 109.90 | 100 WMA | ||
110.85 | 200 HMA/100 HMA | 109.55 | 15 Sept low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Trade Balance, Nikkei Mfg Flash PMI, Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index
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GBPUSD: 1.4001 |
Sterling has had a choppy session, falling from 1.4000 (seen in Asia) to 1.3915 on profit taking, before renewed demand at the London fix took it back up to a new post-Brexit high of 1.4026, and then consolidating at 1.4000 into the close. Watch out for the UK jobs data today. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Up | Weekly Indicators: Up | |||
Preferred Strategy: As before, Cable looks increasingly positive and with the daily/weekly momentum indicators aligning higher, a test of 1.4050/1.4100,with little resistance to be seen ahead of the next major Fibo level at 1.4250 (76.4% of 1.5017/1.1821). The 4 hour charts show some bearish divergence so waiting to buy dips would seem the best laid plan. Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3950. SL @ 1.3880, TP @ 1.4100 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
1.4130 | Minor | 1.3975 | Minor | ||
1.4100 | Minor | 1.3960 | Minor | ||
1.4050 | Minor | 1.3945 | Minor | ||
1.4026 | Session high | 1.3915 | Session low | ||
1.4000 | Psychological | 1.3880 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Unemployment
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USDCHF: 0.9576 |
US$Chf is lower today, back below 0.9600 but so far holding on to the support at 0.9565/0.9550 and the recent 0.9535 low. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: As with yesterday, the daily charts look heavy, and if 0.9550/65 does get taken out we could head quickly to 0.9535 and then possibly a fair bit lower, with little support to be seen until 0.9430. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.9630/40, with solid offers likely to arrive at 0.9650/65. I remain neutral, possibly looking to sell rallies, with a SL placed at 0.9680. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.9665 | 18 Jan high | 0.9565 | (76.4% of 0.9420/1.0037)/Rising trend support /Session low | ||
0.9660 | 200 WMA | 0.9550 | 100 MMA | ||
0.9650 | 17 Jan high | 0.9535 | 19 Jan low | ||
0.9637 | (23.6% of 1.0004 /0.9535)/22 Jan high | 0.9515 | Minor | ||
0.9600 | Minor | 0.9500 | Minor |
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AUDUSD: 0.8002 |
AudUsd is still trading at close to 0.8000, after a choppy session which saw the Aud head up to 0.8028 before reversing sharply to a low of 0.7955 and then bouncing to sit pretty much unchanged on the day. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Up – Becoming Overbought | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning higher? | |||
Preferred Strategy: The longer term uptrend remains intact, although the daily charts look toppish and warn of a deeper correction, lower. While above the Rising trend support though it may just be a buy on dips scenario. It is a fairly light data calendar again and a long w/e in Australia on Friday so external factors will drive price action, and if the US$ remains weak then the Aud will give 0.8030 another nudge. Right now a neutral stance seems best. Buying dips towards 0.7960 may be a plan today, but with a tight stop loss in place below the trend support line. Note that the 200 MMA lies at 0.8055, which should be strong resistance.Buy AudUsd @ 0.7960. SL @ 0.7935, TP @ 0.8045 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.8102 | 20 Sept high | 0.8000 | Pivot | ||
0.8080 | Minor | 0.7980 | Minor | ||
0.8055 | 200 MMA | 0.7956 | Minor | ||
0.8036/38 | 21 Sept High/19 Jan high | 0.7940 | 17 Jan low | ||
0.8029 | Session high | 0.7900/10 | 23.6% of 0.7510/0.7998 / Rising trend support |
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NZDUSD: 0.7356 |
The Kiwi is trading higher again on Wednesday, reaching 0.7365 before settling near 0.7350, with positive risk sentiment and selling of AudNzd cross underpinning the Kiwi. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Up – Possible topping formation. | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher | |||
Preferred Strategy: While the medium term charts look constructive for further gains, buying dips would seem to be the plan although I am reluctant to get long given that the dailies are now becoming overbought and the RSIs are diverging and are not backing up the latest move higher. The short term momentum indicators also look positive though so I would not be looking to sell it here yet. Stand aside. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.7434 | 20 Sept high | 0.7305 | Session low | ||
0.7415 | Minor | 0.7267 | 22 Jan low | ||
0.7400 | Minor | 0.7245 | 18 Jan low | ||
0.7375 | (76.4% of 0.7557/0.6780) | 0.7225 | (23.6% of 6780/0.7364) | ||
0.7364 | Session high | 0.7200 | Minor |
By January 24, 2018
Source: FXCharts