EurUsd traded a tight 1.1193/1.1250 range on Thursday, leaving the outlook unchanged.
While the dailies still look constructive, the short term momentum indicators are now mixed and it may be that Friday will be another choppy session, with little to drive direction until the US session, when the GDP and Durable Goods Orders may provide some volatility. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.1250 and then at the previous 23 May/trend high of 1.1268. Beyond there, there is little to stop it heading back to 1.1300, and above that, the points to watch are at 1.1365 (18 Aug high), 1.1427 (24 June high) and then at 1.1450 (major descending trend resistance).
On the downside, good support will once again be seen at 1.1160/65, below which could see a run back towards 1.1100 and then towards 1.1080 and 1.1050.
A range trade day seems to lie ahead although the dailies may be in the early process of forming a top, while the 4 hour charts look a little heavy, so selling into strength with a SL placed above 1.1270 may be a plan.
|24 Hour: Possible range trade||Medium Term: Neutral|
|1.1326||8 Sept high||1.1193||Pivot|
|1.1300||9 Nov high||1.1167||24 May low|
|1.1280||Minor||1.1165/60||(23.6% of 1.0838/1.1262)/22 May low|
|1.1268||22 May high||1.1140||Minor|
|1.1249||Session high||1.1100||(38.2% of 1.0838/1.1262)|
Economic data highlights will include:
US Provisional GDP (Q1), Durable Goods Orders (Apr), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, G7
US$Jpy has had a rangebound session (111.46/95) leaving the outlook unchanged.
The momentum indicators are mixed/neutral on Friday and another choppy rangebound session within the 111/112 area would not surprise. While the dailies remain rather negative, the 4 hour charts may be hinting at a mild squeeze to the topside, and further short term gains could see another move towards 112.00/10 and then to 112.30, albeit possibly not today, and then to 112.75, which might be a decent sell area if we get there.
On the downside, below 111.45, there is little to prop the dollar up until 111.00, a break of which would lead to 110.85 and 110.60 ahead of last Thursday’s low of 110.23.
|24 Hour: Range Trade||Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies|
|112.77||(61.8% of 114.36/110.23)||111.47||24/May low/Session low|
|112.30||(50% of 114.36/110.23)||110.85||23 May low|
|112.12||24 May high||110.57||200 WMA|
|111.95||Session high||110.23||17 May low|
Economic data highlights will include:
Cable has had a choppy, rangebound session (1.2931/1.3015) leaving the outlook unchanged, but is finishing towards its lows, not helped by the weak Q1 GDP reading of -0.2% (exp +0.3%).
The momentum indicators are mixed/neutral on Friday, possibly with a mildly negative tone, and back below the session low would allow a move back to the good band of support between 1.2890/1.2910, below which could return to the distant 16 May low of 1.2865.
Back above 1.3000, and the session high of 1.3015, would find strong resistance in the 1.3035/45 area, capped by last Thursday’s, 8-month high of 1.3047, but above which could run towards strong offers at 1.3075, and then further out, towards the long descending term trend resistance at around 1.3120. A break of this looks important and could lead to a quick run towards 1.3270 although that remains to be seen.
As with yesterday, a neutral stance is required today although I mildly prefer to trade from the short side, looking to sell rallies towards 1.3000, with a SL placed above 1.3050.
|24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies||Medium Term: Neutral|
|1.3120||Descending trend resistance||1.2931||Session low|
|1.3075||(23.6% of 1.7191/1.1821)||1.2914||19 May low|
|1.3047||18 May high||1.2900||Minor|
|1.3033||23 May high||1.2888||18 May low|
|1.3014||Session high||1.2965||16 May low|
US$Chf remains choppy but at this point is holding on above 0.9700, after a tight range of 0.9700/38).
The 4 hour charts now look pretty neutral, possibly pointing slightly higher, and on the topside, back above 0.9740 would open the way to 0.9775/85, above which could see a run back to 0.9800/10. Back above here would then run towards 0.9845, although possibly not today.
The dailies though still point to further medium term weakness, and on the downside, good support should be seen at 0.9700, but below 0.9690 would then open the way back to 0.9675 and to 0.9600/40 although this looks unlikely to be seen today.
Selling rallies towards 0.9775, with a SL placed above 0.0.9800 could be a plan.
|24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies||Medium Term: Mildly Bearish|
|0.9845||(38.2% of 1.0100/0.9691)||0.9700||Session low|
|0.9825||15 May high||0.9691||22 May low|
|0.9804||19 May high||0.9675||Minor|
|0.9786||(23.6% of 1.0100/0.9691)||0.9635||Minor|
|0.9775||24 May high||0.9600||Minor|
AudUsd fell back below 0.7500 in Europe and headed to a low of 0.7450 in the US session finishing towards its lows.
Technically, the short term charts now point towards further losses although the dailies still look constructive, so a cautious stance is required.
We really need to hold on to 0.7435/40 today or the Aud could head back towards 0.7400/10 and to the recent lows at 0.7384/88. Below this would open the way to the 12 May low of 0.7366 and 0.7350 (minor), ahead of the stronger 0.7330 level. Back below the 9 May low of 0.7328 would find little to hold the Aud up until 0.7300 and the rising trend support, at 0.7285, although this seems unlikely to be seen for a while.
On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 0.7480 and at 0.7500 ahead of the 23 May high of 0.7517. Above here would then look for a run towards 0.7540/45 and eventually to 0.7555.
For Friday, a neutral stance is required, although with the positive look of the dailies, buying dips may be the theme. Below 0.7435 though would suggest a deeper decline.
|24 Hour: Neutral||Medium Term: Neutral|
|0.7545||3 May high||0.7450||Session low|
|0.7538||(50% of 0.7750/0.7328)||0.7442||24 May low|
|0.7525||Minor||0.7435||22 May low|
|0.7515/17||Session high/23 May high||0.7407||19 May low|
|0.7480||Minor||0.7388/84||17 May low/15 May low|
The Kiwi has had a choppy session (0.7015/54) but at this stage is holding on above 0.7000.
The short term momentum indicators though are starting to look a bit heavy, and on the downside, a break of 0.7000 could take us back to the 24 May low of 0.6988, below which would see a run to 0.6965 and possibly to 0.6940.
A squeeze to the topside could we could see another run towards 0.7150, a break of which would open the way to the March highs at 0.7072 and then 0.7095, above which, the 200 DMA lies at 0.7105.
Although the short term momentum indicators look heavy, the dailies remain positive so a cautious stance is warranted. I prefer to sell into strength though, with a SL placed above the 100 DMA, or ideally above 0.7070.
|24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips||Medium Term: Neutral -Cautiously bullish.|
|0.7160||(61.8% pivot of 0.7375/0.817)||0.7015||Session low|
|0.7105||200 DMA||0.7000||(23.6% of 0.6817/0.7058)|
|0.7090/95||21 Mar high/(50% pivot of 0.7375/0.817)||0.6988||24 May low|
|0.7072||22 Mar high||0.6965||(38.2% of 0.6817/0.7058)|
|0.7054||Session high/100 DMA||0.6938||(50% pivot of 0.6817/0.7058)|