29 Sept: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas: FX Charts


EURUSD: 1.1783
Preferred Strategy: As with yesterday, while I prefer to retain a medium term short position because of the bearish look of the daily charts, the short term momentum indicators do point to the chance of a continuation of the current minor recovery, so I would not be surprised to see a bit more of a bounce over the next couple of sessions. Short term traders could buy it here, with a tight SL placed below the 1.1720 session low, or otherwise look to sell any short term rally back above 1.1800. As before, note that we could see a return to the neckline of the H/S formation so SL should be placed above here (1.1850). Sell EurUsd @ 1.1835. SL @ 1.1870, TP @ 1.1680.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.1885 200 HMA 1.1750 Minor
1.1860 26 Sept high / (50% of 1.2005/1.1716) 1.1720/16 (38.2% of 1.1118/1.2091)/Daily cloud top/27 Sept low
1.1825 (38.2% of 1.2005/1.1716) 1.1700 Minor
1.1815 100 HMA 1.1685 Minor
1.1802 Session high 1.1661 17 Aug low

Economic data highlights will include:

German Retail Sales, Unemployment, EU Provisional CPI (Sept), US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index

USDJPY: 112.32
Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy did attempt to break higher once again, today reaching 113.20 but, unable to follow through, the bulls ran for cover and pushed the pair back towards 112.00, finishing on the lows of 112.30. Further range trading looks likely for the coming session although the short term momentum indicators do hint that a stronger test of 112.00 is possible. The dailies still look constructive, so buying dips below 112.00 with a SL placed sub 111.50 may be a plan although a NY close below the 200 DMA may entail further dips next week.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
113.55 Minor 112.32 Session low
113.20/25 Session high/27 Sept high 112.20 27 Sept low
113.00 Minor 112.05 200 DMA /Daily Tenkan
112.80 Minor 111.80 Minor
112.60 Minor 111.52 Daily cloud top

Economic data highlights will include:

CPI, Retail Trade, Industrial Production, Unemployment, Housing Starts, Construction Orders

GBPUSD: 1.3438
Preferred Strategy: Cable was once again choppy, with a negative bias heading into early London trade which then turned around for the pair to finish near the day’s high of 1.3454. More of the same looks likely on Friday although the Current Account and GDP figure may provide something directional, as could speeches from various BOE members, including Carney. In the short term the positive bias may continue but the dailies are beginning to look heavy. Neutral .
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.3550 Descending trend resistance 1.3415 Minor
1.3513 26 Sept high 1.3390 Minor
1.3500 Minor 1.3363 Minor
1.3485 200 HMA 1.3342 Session low
1.3455 Session high 1.3320 (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3656)

Economic data highlights will include:

UK Q2 GDP, Total Business Investment, Net Lending to Individuals, Current Account, Speeches: BOE Broadbent, Carney

USDCHF: 0.9700
Preferred Strategy: US$Chf once again tried the topside, reaching 0.9758, before retreating a little lower in a tight range, to finish at close to 0.9700. I suspect further choppy trade lies ahead with a mild downside bias although medium term traders should be looking to buy the dips for an eventual run above 0.9770 and on to 0.9800/10 and eventually higher. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9660. SL @ 0.9580, TP @ 0.9800
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.9808 30 May  high 0.9697 Session low
0.9785 Minor 0.9683 27 Sept low /200 HMA
0.9772 8 Aug high/(38.2% of 1.0343/0.9420) 0.9660 Minor
0.9769 27 Sept high 0.9641 25 Sept low
0.9758 Session high 0.9635 (38.2% of 0.9420/0.9769)

AUDUSD: 0.7852
Preferred Strategy: The Aud fell to a low of 0.7799 on Thursday and further medium term losses look highly likely, although the short term momentum indicators are now turning higher and a minor topside squeeze would not surprise on Friday. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7875. SL @ 0.7910, TP @ 0.7785. Short term traders may want to buy it here, but some caution is warranted as the PSC and Caixin Mfg PMI may cause some choppy conditions.
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7935 (38.2% of 0.8102/0.7835) 0.7840 Minor
0.7915 Minor 0.7820 Minor
0.7900 (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7835) 0.7799 Session low
0.7882 27 Sept high 0.7785 18 July low
0.7859 Session high 0.7760 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Private Sector Credit, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI

NZDUSD: 0.7230
Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi has been choppy and is now effectively boxed in between a double bottom (0.7166) and a double top (0.7240) but is closing on its highs, and as with yesterday, short term traders might want to play it from the long side today. The dailies are neutral so the medium term strategy is to stand aside. Repeat yesterday’s order, which worked nicely. Buy NzdUsd @ 0.7180. SL @ 0.7150, TP @ 0.7250. Building Permits due shortly.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7300 Minor 0.7200 Minor
0.7285 Minor 0.7167/66 26 Sept low/Session low
0.7268 (38.2% of 0.7434/0.7166) /200 HMA 0.7142/45 4 Sept low/200 DMA
0.7255 Minor 0.7131 31 Aug low
0.7238/39 Session high/27 Sept high 0.7105 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)

Economic data highlights will include:

Building Permits

By | September 29, 2017
Source: FXCharts

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