‘Grexit’ fear yet EUR up and US$ down!

Given the concern on Monday about an increasingly likely Greek-debt default and Grexit one has to be surprised to see that the EUR index traded higher on the day and that the USD index traded lower. Alice in Wonderland stuff! It seems some second-tier US Manufacturing data worried US$ bulls and hence the pull back there. Strangely, too, Gold and Silver are only a little higher but global stocks sold off as expected. The two open TC signals have moved on for further gain but I’m increasingly wary given the high stakes this week given the situation with Greece and FOMC.

USDX daily: this has not been able to get back up over the 95.50 resistance level. I’ve relaxed the triangle trend lines again:


EURX daily: still triangle bound here too but higher on the day:


S&P500 daily: the index has fallen and is now near the support of the bottom of the daily Cloud. Watch for any close and hold below the Cloud:


Silver: a bit higher but still only just above the $16 level:


Gold daily: just above $1,180 support:


TC Signals: both signals are still open and have moved on to give more pips:

Cable 4hr: now up to near 190 pips:


GBP/JPY 4hr: up near 120 pips:


Other FX: there is AUD RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, GBP CPI, EUR Consumer Sentiment and the European Court of Justice Ruling, USD Building Permit and NZD GDT Price Index data out today BUT most focus will be on Wednesday’s FOMC and Thursday’s Eurogroup Meetings.

E/U 4hr: higher on the day but still within a daily triangle. No surprise here that momentum is low!


E/J 4hr: no momentum here so have relaxed the trend lines:


A/U 4hr: chopping a bit higher but still under the 4hr 200 EMA. Watch for any reaction to today’s RBA data:


A/J daily: still focused on the larger daily triangle:


Kiwi 4hr: not falling as far as one would have expected following the RBNZ rate cut. The weaker US$ has helped this back up to the weekly 200 EMA (green line). Watch for any reaction to the GDT Price Index data:


U/J 4hr: no momentum here either so I have adjusted the trend lines and, so, watch for any breakout WITH momentum. We might not see any major reaction here until Wednesday’s FOMC.


EUR/NZD 4hr: chopping around above the wedge breakout trend line:


GBP/AUD: chopping above the 2.0 level:


GBP/NZD: hasn’t really looked back since clearing the 2.10 level:


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