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Yen holds gains as Treasury yield inversion fans recession fears: Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) – The yen held on to gains against major currencies in early Asian trading on Thursday as growing signs of a global economic slump drove investors into safe-haven assets. The Swiss franc and gold also edged higher as investors fled from stocks and sought safe-haven assets after the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted […]


Germany heading for recession By Aline Schuiling

German GDP fell in 2019Q2 and Q3 numbers point to a contraction as well The industry recession is intensifying and domestic demand is slowing down We expect the German economy to be weaker than the eurozone, which should be close to stagnation in 2019H2 but not in recession ABN-AMRO-Short-Insight-Germany-heading-for-recession.pdf (344 KB) Download 1. Weakness concentrated […]


15 Aug: US yield curve inversion hints at recession. Stocks lower. Australia Jobs data ahead. A busy US session later By Jim Langlands

It was another risk-off session on Wednesday,  with stock markets and the oil price both falling sharply after the US 2/10 year yield curve inverted and indicated the growing possibility of a US recession, which came on top of poor economic  data earlier in the day from both Germany and China.  The German GDP contracted […]


USDCAD View: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom – A few clients asking about USDCAD today as we climb from yesterday’s 1.3220 close to 1.3306 (current). There is nothing CAD specific happening, in fact CAD is outperforming SEK, NOK and AUD today…Just a mild bout of risk aversion as fixed income continues to frighten and global data threatens to […]


EURNOK USDCNH Views: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom – CIBC: short EUR/NOK at market (9.9300) to target 9.59 with s/l at 10.11 The NOK appears to be well positioned to benefit from the improvement in risk-tone. Recent data has been supportive – with July inflation partially surprising to the topside. The Norges Bank meeting on Thursday should re-affirm that […]


Trump cheer supports AUDNZD By Tony Sycamore

A decision overnight by President Trump to delay the imposition of new tariffs on a wide variety of consumer products including laptops, smartphones and children’s toys until Mid-December has boosted risky markets after a shaky start to the week. Whether the tariff delay signals that the odds of a trade deal have improved after senior […]


14 Aug: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices: FXCharts

Things look rather different on Tuesday following the announcement of the delay in tariffs on Chinese goods and all of a sudden we have a positive risk outlook with US stocks moving up sharply and the Jpy back under pressure, and US$Jpy and the Jpy/Xs now looking as though they  wants to head. All very […]


Markets Today: Tariff delays bring swift response By Tapas Strickland

There’s been a sharp turnaround in market sentiment as the US announced delays to the extra tariffs on Chinese imports for certain consumer-sensitive products. Today’s podcast Overview: Stronger? Risk rally as President Trump delays some consumer-sensitive tariffs until December 15 Stocks up (S&P500 + 1.4%), and shorter-end yields higher (US 2 years +8.4bps) China proxies up […]



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