The US Election result should be known within the next 36 hours and so here is a look at how a few instruments are shaping up ahead of this news event. Some still look to be coiling up within consolidation patterns ahead of this news but becoming ripe for a breakout, and hence opportunity, and I’m wondering if the US Election result might be the catalyst for such activity.
USD/MXN weekly: this has to be the most watched pair with the US Election. A Trump result is expected to see continuation. A Clinton win however, and then I think a move down to test the 61.8% fib and weekly 200 EMA could be worth stalking. Watch the trend line for any make or break activity:
S&P500 daily: a Bull Flag? A Clinton win might help to develop this.
Gold: watch the triangle trend lines on the daily chart for any momentum-based make or break activity:
Gold daily: watch the trend lines for any breakout. Note how the apex is at the $1,300 level!
EUR/USD: the 4hr chart shows a bit of a Bull Flag-style wedge within the daily chart’s triangle and all of this is under the monthly chart’s key 1.12 level, that level being the monthly 61.8% fib:
EUR/USD 4hr: Watch the wedge trend lines for any momentum-based breakout and, if bullish, then watch the 1.12 level:
EUR/USD daily: following any 4hr chart wedge trend line breakout then watch for similar on the daily chart. Also, keep a sharp eye on the 1.12 level:
EUR/USD monthly: The 1.12 level has been S/R over many months:
EUR/JPY: this is back above the key 115 level and is trying to break out from the daily chart’s triangle pattern but the weekly chart triangle is still in play. Keep an eye on the 115 level for any decisive make or break activity:
EUR/JPY 4hr: This is back above 115 and near the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib level. The 116.35 is recent S/R here though:
EUR/JPY weekly: recall the 115 is key as this is near the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib of the swing high move:
AUD/USD: this has made another attempt on the 3.5 year bear trend line. I would expect that a Clinton win might trigger the bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ breakout. If so, the target for this move would take price action up to near the monthly chart’s bear trend line, a TL of over 6 year duration, which is near the 61.8% fib and 0.95 cent level. Thus, keep an eye on the weekly chart’s ‘neck line’ trend line for any make or break activity:
AUD/USD 4hr: I have had LONG signals on the 30 min and 4 hr time frame charts here overnight. I’m waiting until after the US Election though:
AUD/USD daily: attempting a triangle breakout and a larger, weekly-chart ‘Inv H&S breakout:
AUD/USD weekly: watch for any weekly close above the ‘neck line’ to support a bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern here:
AUD/JPY: the A/J has made a bullish daily close above a two-year bear trend line and the key 80 level. A weekly close above this bear trend line would be very bullish and I would look to target the 89 level as this is near the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib and is a long-term S/R level. As with the AUD/USD, I have had LONG signals on the 30 min and 4 hr time frame charts here overnight. I’m waiting until after the US Election though. Thus, watch the daily chart’s 2 year bear trend line for any make or break activity:
AUD/JPY 4hr: I have had LONG signals on the 30 min and 4 hr time frame charts here overnight. I’m waiting until after the US Election though:
AUD/JPY daily: note the trend line break:
AUD/JPY weekly: a weekly trend line break would be very bullish. If so, watch for any move up to near the 89 level:
AUD/JPY monthly: note how 89 has been long term S/R:
NZD/USD: I’m watching the 0.73 and 0.74 levels. Price hasn’t made a weekly close above 0.74 since early 2015 and so any new weekly close above this would have to be read as bullish. Thus, watch the 0.74 level for any make or break activity:
NZD/USD 4hr: this does have a bit of a Bull Flag look to it:
NZD/USD weekly: watch for any make or break this week at the 0.74 level:
NZD/USD monthly: a monthly close above 0.74 would be pretty significant too!
USD/JPY: this is now in a 4hr triangle and I like the way the apex is right on the 104 recent S/R level! Watch for any trend line breakout with the Election result. I had thought that the 101.5 level might be tested again but, maybe not. The weekly and monthly charts show bullish patterns still evolving, thus, watch the 4 hr chart’s bear trend lines for any make or break activity:
USD/JPY 4hr: watch for any momentum-based TL breakout:
USD/JPY daily: I’m looking for any bullish continuation to target the congested/highlighted zone:
USD/JPY weekly: watch for any make or break off 100-101.5 region:
USD/JPY monthly: looks like a bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ on the monthly chart; so long as the 100 level holds:
USD/CAD weekly: I have adjusted my wedge trend line here due to lack of momentum. Watch the trend lines for any make or break activity: