US$, stocks lower ahead of NFP with EUR winner for now

The US$ traded lower again on Wednesday following a weak lead from the US private payrolls data. The lower US$, higher yields, falling bonds and looming NFP would have been enough to spook stocks but the Fed-Chair Yellen comments about stocks being ‘over-valued’ didn’t help their case either. The EUR seems to be the clear winner out of this recent confusion.

USDX 4hr: this remains below the 95.50 Double Bottom ‘neck-line’. It is now resting just above the daily support trend line. A break and hold below this support would support a deeper pull-back.

USDX4

EURX daily: onward and upwards!  The Bear Market Truncation pattern continues to play out here:

EURXdaily

BearMarketTruncation

S&P500 daily: the index has broken below trend line support BUT is still above the Cloud for now. Watch for any break and hold below this though:

S&PdailyCloud

Silver daily: still edging towards the apex of the monthly chart triangle pattern:

SilverDaily

Gold daily: consolidating here too:

GoldDaily

Oil daily: might be due a pause as it nears the daily 200 EMA. Note the daily candle formation:

OilDaily

Forex: there is AUD employment data, US Unemployment claims, CAD Building Permit data and the UK Election to come today.

E/U 4hr: the Bull Flag breakout has continued. Any hold above 1.12 is VERY significant as this is the 61.8% fib of the major swing high move:

EU4

E/U monthly Cloud: this chart shows the 61.8% fib level more clearly. I had also pointed out the bullish-reversal ‘Railway Track’ pattern over the w/e and this is playing out so far:

EUmonthlyCloud

E/J 4hr: Bull Flag continuation here too:

EJ4

E/J daily: watch for any break and hold back above the daily 200 EMA. Note the alignment with the Bear Market Truncation pattern here too:

EJdaily

A/U 4hr: holding above the 0.795 trading channel ahead of today’s Employment data:

AU4

A/J 4hr: trading just under the key 96 level ahead of today’s Employment data:

AJ4

G/U 4hr: stuck between 1.50 and 1.55 whilst waiting for any UK Election outcome news:

GU4

G/U 4hr Cloud: also stuck in the 4hr Cloud:

GU4Cloud

GBP/JPY 4hr: consolidating under the key 184 level whilst waiting for the outcome of the UK Election:

GJ4hr

GBP/JPY 4hr Cloud: like the Cable, also stuck in the 4hr Cloud:

GJ4hrCloud

Kiwi 4hr: just choppy:

Kiwi4

U/J 4hr: lower with the weaker US$ and stocks:

UJ4

EUR/NZD 4hr: The Bull Flag move continues after giving 280 pips and this will close above the 1.50 S/R level. However, it is now sitting at the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move.

EN4hr

EUR/NZD daily: the 61.8% fib and the daily 200 EMA are hurdles for this pair but a break and hold above these leaves pretty clear sailing until the monthly chart’s bear trend line:

ENdaily

EUR/NZD monthly: a break and hold above the monthly chart’s bear trend line would be rather interesting. I had pointed out the prospect of a bullish descending wedge here some weeks ago now:

ENmonthly

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