Weaker US$ begs the question: some Risk-On on the way?


Janet Yellen’s soothing words about the jobs market helped to lift US stocks but did little for the US$. The US$ index looks likely to close the day with a bearish candle and is trying to avoid falling below the support of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and this bearish bias must be perplexing for US$ Bulls. With the US$ lower but the U/J, stocks, Oil Gold and A/U higher, it looks like a bit of classic style ‘risk-on’ could be trying to emerge. Of particular interest, to me at least, was that the USD/JPY traded higher on the day, perhaps preferring to run with stocks than the US$?

USDX weekly: the US$ has been trying to hold above the support of the weekly Cloud for the last 7 weeks but it’s down there testing this support yet again. A weekly close and hold below this Cloud support would be rather bearish indeed!

USDXweeklyCloud

USDX daily: soothing words from the Fed Chair BUT still looks like a bearish close. This bit of divergence should spell WARNING to all traders, but especially US$ Bulls.

USDXdaily

S&P500 daily: the Tenkan/Kijun crosses are generally on the money! The index has closed at its higher level for this year. 

S&PdailyCloud

Gold 4hr: I didn’t end up getting a 4hr based TC signal here BUT the weaker US$ is helping, as expected and predicted. Watch for any close above the daily Cloud to help support here:

Gold4hr

GoldDailyCloud

TC Signals: both signals are positive but have done little for the day:

E/U 4hr: only marginally higher on the day:

EU4

A/U 4hr: Caution: watch today with RBA Interest Rates though!

AU4

Other Forex:

E/J 4hr: note the bounce off the trend line; I had warned about this possibility in my w/e write up:

EJ4

Kiwi 4hr: keep an eye on the 0.70 level with RBNZ on Thursday:

Kiwi4

A/J 4hr: keep an eye on the 80 level with today’s RBA update:

AJ4

U/J 4hr: the surprise of the day with this tracking US stocks rather than the US$. A sign of things to come? If so, this could help to support a move to classic style ‘Risk-On‘:

UJ4

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