EURUSD: 1.2230 |
EurUsd is lower today, initially following the lower than expected German CPI, and then on the back of Powell’s upbeat outlook, but so far is holding on above decent support above 1.2200. It will be a busy session ahead with the German Gfk Consumer Sentiment and Unemployment, and then the US ISM/Prices Paid and the US Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index in focus. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? – Possible topping formation. | |||
Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are pointing lower and a test of 1.2200 seems likely, and with the dailies looking heavy we could be in for a run towards the Fibo support at 1.2170.Under there opens the way to the rising trend support from April 2017, currently some way off at 1.2070. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 1.2260/80 and beyond there at 1.2300.
I prefer to look for levels to sell at around 1.2265/75, hoping for a run back down to 1.2200 and possibly to 1.2170. SL should be above1.2310 Sell EurUsd @ 1.2270. SL @ 1.2315, TP @ 1.2170 |
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Resistance | Support | ||||
1.2359 | 21 Feb high | 1.2220 | Session low | ||
1.2345 | Session high | 1.2205 | 9 Feb low | ||
1.2300 | 100 HMA | 1.2170 | (38.2% of 1.1553/1.2550) | ||
1.2280 | Minor | 1.2164 | 18 Jan low | ||
1.2255 | Minor | 1.2135 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Consumer Confidence Survey – Mar, German Unemployment – Feb, Provisional EU CPI – Feb, US Provisional Q4 GDP/Personal Consumption/Expenditure Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, – Feb, Pending Home Sales, – Jan, Fed’s Powell Testimony to Congress, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
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USDJPY: 107.36 |
US$Jpy ran up to 107.67, from and earlier low of 106.78, on Powell’s comments but is currently trading back at 107.35, with the Jpy in some demand through selling of EurJpy. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy seems to be building a base and managed to spend the entire day above the daily Tenkan (106.70), adding confidence to further upside momentum. I prefer to buy dips to 107.00, looking for a run up to 107.90 and possibly higher. If we can crack 108.00 we may head towards 108.35. Downside stops should be placed under 106.70.Buy US$Jpy @ 107.00. SL @ 106.65, TP @ 107.90 | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
108.35 | Daily Kijun | 107.15 | Minor | ||
108.00 | Minor | 107.00 | Minor | ||
107.89 | 14 Feb high /21 Feb high | 106.77 | Session low | ||
107.76 | 22 Feb high | 106.50 | Minor | ||
107.67 | Session high | 106.37 | 26 Jan low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Provisional Industrial Production – Jan, Retail Trade – Jan, Housing Starts, Construction Orders – Jan
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GBPUSD: 1.3905 |
Cable had another volatile day on Tuesday, pushed around by a combination of M&A talk, Brexit headlines and Powell’s testimony. At the end of the session it is sitting above 1.3900 after a range of 1.3995/1.3857. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral. | Weekly Indicators: Up –Possible topping formation. | |||
Preferred Strategy: Cable remains very choppy, and with the momentum indicators giving little hint it is probably best left alone right now although the dailies do look slightly heavy so possibly selling rallies, with a SL above 1.4000 may be a plan. The medium term target would be at around the Rising trend support, currently at 1.3780. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
1.4040 | Minor | 1.3900 | Minor | ||
1.4025 | Minor | 1.3880 | Minor | ||
1.3995 | Session high | 1.3857 | Session low | ||
1.3975 | Minor | 1.3825 | Minor | ||
1.3940 | Minor | 1.3800 | 14 Feb low | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
UK Consumer Confidence – Feb
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USDCHF: 0.9391 |
US$Chf has traded higher in reaching 0.9416 from a 0.9357 low, but is now back below 0.9400, with the Chf in some demand through the cross (EurChf), which remained heavy after ht lower than expected German CPI. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher? | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
Preferred Strategy: As before, the dailies look constructive, so I prefer to look to buy dips, possibly around 0.9360, with a SL placed at 0.9310. The immediate target is 0.9410/20, and above there we may get a chance to see 0.9470/0.9500. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.9510 | (38.2% of 1.0037 /0.9187) | 0.9357 | Minor | ||
0.9469 | 8 Feb low | 0.9340 | Minor | ||
0.9440 | Minor | 0.9324/27 | 26 Jan low /200 HMA | ||
0.9416 | Session high | 0.9300 | Minor | ||
0.9400 | Minor | 0.9262 | 22 Feb low |
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AUDUSD: 0.7787 |
The Aud is lower at the end of the US session, trading on its lows and look as though it will test the 0.7760 support at any moment. A lower than expected reading today from the Private Sector Credit – Jan, China NBS Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs would help it on its way. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower. | Daily Indicators: Turning lower? | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower? | |||
Preferred Strategy:The momentum indicators are all looking heavy on Wednesday, so trading from the short side and selling rallies is preferred. If we do see a squeeze higher, look to sell at around 0.7825, hoping for a return to 0.7760/70 which should be decent support if/when we get there. We may not see a rally, and a break of 0.7760 will target 0.7745 and then there is little to hold the Aud up until 0.7650 (76.4% of 0.7501/0.8135).
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7820. SL @ 0.7770, TP @ 0.7745. |
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Resistance | Support | ||||
0.7901 | 21 Feb high | 0.7783 | Session low | ||
0.7892 | 26 Jan high | 0.7772 | 200 DMA/100 DMA | ||
0.7867 | Session high | 0.7758 | 9 Feb low | ||
0.7850 | Minor | 0.7743 | (61.8% of 0.7501/0.8135) | ||
0.7825 | Minor | 0.7720 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Private Sector Credit – Jan, China NBS Mfg/Non-Mfg PMIs
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NZDUSD: 0.7234 |
The Kiwi had a tough session in heading down to a low of 0.7230 from its high of 0.7304. Closing the US session on its lows, further losses look likely. | |||||
1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral | |||
Preferred Strategy: The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators still look heavy so I prefer to trade for the short side and to sell rallies with a SL placed above 0.7270, with the target being the major Fibo level at around 0.7185, (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7438). A close below the 8 Feb low of 0.7176 would eventually suggest lower levels still, but we have to wait and see on that. | |||||
Resistance | Support | ||||
0.7385 | 21 Feb high | 0.7233 | Session low | ||
0.7375 | Minor | 0.7220 | Minor | ||
0.7364 | 22 Feb high | 0.7200 | Minor | ||
0.7344 | 23 Feb high/26 Jan high | 0.7176 | 8 Feb low | ||
0.7325 | Minor | 0.7170 | 200 DMA | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
Visitor Arrivals – Jan, ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Confidence -Feb
By February 28, 2018