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Stock markets had a bit of a pullback on Tuesday, after 3 days of good gains, as traders began to square up ahead of Jackson Hole, and the short term momentum indicators suggest further mild downside momentum ahead. The FX markets are mixed, and the US$ is generally slightly lower while the DXY is looking […]
The surprise news on Friday were reports that the German government might relax some of its spending rules to splash out and prevent a recession. Today’s podcast Overview: Wild thoughts German fiscal stimulus hopes buoy equities (S&P500 +1.4%) along with yields (German 10yr +2.8bps to -0.69%) Trump was worried about Wednesday’s stock market fall – held […]
LONDON (Reuters) – The euro steadied on Monday after suffering its biggest weekly drop in nearly two months as risk appetite gradually returned to global markets after a week of turmoil. With hopes of fiscal stimulus from Germany growing and steps by China over the weekend to cut corporate lending costs pushing up equities, growth-sensitive […]
Market Drivers August 19, 2019 EUR rebounds to 1,1100 on German stimulus talk Risk trades better Nikkei 0.71% DAX 0.84% UST 10Y 1.58% Oil $55/bbl Gold $1507/oz BTC/USD $10750 Europe and Asia: EUR CPI North America: No Data FX markets were steady at the start of the trading week with risk assets bid up slightly as […]
Macro Weekly – Growth concerns mount, despite tariff delay More twists in trade war: US delays part of fresh China tariffs US recession fears rise, as 2-10 yr yield curve inverts; consumer holds up Eurozone slows: Germany close to a recession, Netherlands outperforms China: Activity data dip in July, after jump in June; more support […]
As of Tuesday 13th August: Traders were net-long USD by $12.3bn overall, and $16.6bn against G10 currencies Large speculators are their most bullish on the Japanese yen since November 2016 The yen also saw the largest weekly change among FX majors, with traders adding +14.2k contracts to their net-long exposure Among the 11 currencies we follow […]
The map looks rather more mixed again today although risk aversion was cast aside on Friday, and the stock markets in particularly look rather more rosy today after the dovish comments from the ECB suggesting easier monetary policy lies ahead. Having said that, I am wary of going long stocks at these levels and think […]
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome […]
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