28 July: DXY looking healthy, with potential to accelerate higher.

USD/DXY: 81.15
 As we said last Sunday, “the DXY could well head higher towards 81.15, beyond which would be a tough nut to crack.” It finished right on 81.15 though and the momentum does appear to suggest further advances towards the next resistance at the 8 Nov 2013 high at 81.48, which again will be tough to break, having fallen away sharply on the last several occasions that it has been tested. If this can be overcome though, as the weeklies suggest is possible, then look for a bigger run up towards the 50% pivot of the move from 84.76 to 78.89 at 81.82. Beyond there could well see an acceleration towards the 61.8% Fibo level at 82.51, albeit that it is some way off yet.

On the downside, where dips look like buying opportunities, we may see a run back to 81.00 and below that to minor rising trend support at around 80.70. Below 80.60 would signal yet another upside failure and would revert back towards the 200 DMA at 80.25 and to the 100 DMA at 80.06, but these are looking increasingly distant and I don’t think they should come under pressure for a fair while.

As we said last week, continue to concentrate on the Euro and the Chf and leave the Yen alone. Gbp is also looking increasingly under pressure. This weeks FOMC, GDP and NFP will be crucial to see whether the dollar actually has the legs to continue its run higher.

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