It was another day of seeking a safe-haven on Friday, with the US$, Yen and Chf all in demand, and in the short term this looks set to continue, with an escalation of the trade-war rhetoric likely to see this theme continue into coming sessions. The commodity currencies could come under further pressure for the same reason ,so for now, trading the Aud +Kiwi from the short side is favoured. Note that the AudUsd finished the week right on major trend and Fibo support, a break of which suggests a run toward 0.6800.
On the crosses, AudJpy and NzdJpy both look headed lower, while both EurAud and GbpAud seem well bid into the new week. The Aud looks heavy on all fronts and AudNzd and even AudCad looks headed lower, despite no NAFTA agreement yet. Keep an eye on EurChf while looks set to move towards 1.1200.
Stocks look a bit flat right now so we may be in for some choppy sideways trade given that it is a US holiday but with the long term charts still looking constructive, buying dips is preferred.
WTI is still at 70.00, and while we could see another run to last week’s high at 70.50, above which there is little to stop it moving on to 71.60, the current lack of any progress in the trade talks suggests that any real upside momentum for WTI might be rather limited in the near term. Buying dips is favoured, given the constructive look of the daily charts, but keep stops tight as trade war headlines could see a swift decline if investors feel we could head towards a major economic downturn.
———————————————————————————————————————-
*Trade of the day: September 3, 2018 8:30 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
Sell EurUsd @ 1.1625. SL @ 1.1680, TP @ 1.1525
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7225. SL @ 0.7270, TP @ 0.7100
Sell EurGbp @ 0.9015. SL @ 0.9050, TP @ 0.8900
Buy WTI @ 69.30. SL @ 68.85, TP @ 71.30
Buy UsdCnh @ 6.8350. SL @ 6.7985, TP @ 6.8900
