| €/Usd is a bit lower today, with the dollar buoyed by enthusiasm for the US tax bill being passed. The pair is currently sitting just above the 100 DMA which may provide support today although the short term momentum indicators hint at lower levels ahead. |
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower |
Daily Indicators: Possible topping formation |
Weekly Indicators: Neutral |
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look a little heavy so selling rallies may be a plan today although not really looking for too much ahead of Friday’s NFP figure. I remain neutral on the Euro, although the daily charts, which had been leaning higher appear to be running out of steam and may be hinting of further dollar strength ahead. Look to trade 1.1770/1.1850 today. |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 1.1939 |
1 Dec high |
1.1805/00 |
100 DMA/(38.2% of 1.1553/1.1943)/Session low |
| 1.1900 |
Pivot |
1.1775 |
55 DMA |
| 1.1890 |
Chart Gap |
1.1755 |
(50% of 1.1553/1.1943) |
| 1.1877 |
4 Dec high |
1.1707 |
(61.8% of 1.1553/1.1943) |
| 1.1840 |
Minor |
1.1685 |
Rising trend support |
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Economic data highlights will include:
German Factory Orders, ECB Non-MP Meeting, US ADP Jobs data, EIA weekly crude oil stock change
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| US$Jpy has remained relatively underpinned on Tuesday as risk appetite improves, although it was capped at 112.85, unable to approach the cloud top at 113.08. A minor selloff has emerged late in the day to see the pair pretty much unchanged over the session. |
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower |
Daily Indicators: Turning higher |
Weekly Indicators: Neutral |
| Preferred Strategy: As before, a nimble stance is required, with the short term momentum indicators looking a little heavy, while the dailies are leaning slightly higher now and buying dips is preferred for the medium term. Look for a range of 112.25/113.10 to cover it today, with further consolidation likely ahead of the US Jobs report, Friday. |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 113.80 |
(76.4% of 114.73/110.83) |
112.50 |
Minor |
| 113.50 |
Minor |
112.37 |
Session low |
| 113.20 |
(61.8% of 114.73/110.83) |
112.00 |
Minor |
| 113.08 |
4 Dec high |
111.60/65 |
100 DMA/200 DMA |
| 112.85 |
Session high |
111.35/39 |
29 Nov low /1 Dec low |
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| Cable reversed off its Brexit-related European low of 1.3370 to reach 1.3460 as confidence returned to the market in PM May’s ability to successfully negotiate with the EU.. |
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning lower |
Daily Indicators: Turning higher |
Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? |
| Preferred Strategy: It looks set to remain choppy for Sterling, with Brexit headlines likely to guide the direction. I still like it higher though for the medium term trade and prefer to buy dips, looking for a run to 1.3650. Ahead of that 1.3550 will see good sellers if we get there.Buy GbpUsd @ 1.3385. SL @ 1.3335, TP @ 1.3550 |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 1.3549 |
1 Dec high |
1.3400 |
200 HMA |
| 1.3538 |
4 Dec high |
1.3370 |
Session low |
| 1.3500 |
Minor |
1.3352 |
(38.2% of 1.3038/1.3549) |
| 1.3480 |
Session high |
1.3325 |
Minor |
| 1.3460 |
Minor |
1.3295 |
(50% of 1.3038/1.3549) |
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| US$Chf has retained a relatively bid tone on Tuesday as risk appetite improves, although the range has been a tight 0.9836/87. |
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher |
Daily Indicators: Neutral |
Weekly Indicators: Neutral |
| Preferred Strategy: With both the short term and daily momentum indicators now looking more constructive we could see a run back to 0.9900+. I prefer to trade from the long side, looking to buy dips, hoping for an eventual return to 0.9900/50 and possibly to 1.0000.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9850. SL @ 0.9800, TP @ 0.9945. |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 1.0000 |
Psychological |
0.9835 |
100 WMA /Session low |
| 0.9946 |
21 Nov high |
0.9805 |
200 DMA |
| 0.9920 |
Minor |
0.9783 |
Chart Gap |
| 0.9895 |
(76.4% of 0.9946/0.9776) |
0.9735 |
1 Dec low /100 DMA |
| 0.9887 |
Session high |
0.9727 |
(50% of 0.9420/1.0037) |
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| AudUsd saw a run up to 0.7653, which has since been rejected, with the Aud closing the session at just above 0.7600. Lower iron ore prices and a big selloff in copper did nothing to help the Aud and may continue to weigh on it today. |
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Turning lower |
Daily Indicators: Turning higher |
Weekly Indicators: Turning lower |
| Preferred Strategy: The Q3 GDP will decide the direction today but overall I still prefer be short Aud$ as we approach the FOMC next week, when the Fed are expected to hike rates. I therefore suspect that further upside for the Aud will be limited and selling into rallies is still preferred.Sell AudUsd @ 0.7630. SL @ 0.7660, TP @ 0.7550 |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 0.7690 |
Minor |
0.7594 |
Session low |
| 0.7665 |
13 Nov high /(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7531) |
0.7578 |
4 Dec low |
| 0.7653 |
Session high |
0.7550 |
1 Dec low /100 WMA / (61.8% of 0.7159/0.8124) |
| 0.7640 |
Minor |
0.7531 |
21 Nov low |
| 0.7625 |
Minor |
0.7515 |
(76.4% of 0.7328/0.8124) |
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Economic data highlights will include:
Q3 GDP
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| The Kiwi has had a relatively quiet overnight session, pretty much unmoved by the Milk Auction, which showed the Global Dairy Trade Index at +0.4% and the WMP +1.7%. After the earlier run up to 0.6907, the latter half of the day has been spent consolidating neat 0.6880. |
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral |
Daily Indicators: Turning higher |
Weekly Indicators: Turning lower |
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are neutral and a cautious stance is required today. The dailies are mildly positive but with the weeklies looking heavy, I still prefer to look for levels to sell into, for an eventual return to the downside, where 0.6780/6800 would provide decent support. For today, a range of 0.6850/0.6910 might cover it. |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 0.6945 |
28 Nov high |
0.6850 |
Session low |
| 0.6933 |
(23.6% of 0.7434/0.6783) |
0.6840 |
4 Dec low |
| 0.6928 |
29 Nov high |
0.6816 |
1 Dec low |
| 0.6907/11 |
Session high/1 Dec high |
0.6779 |
17 Nov low |
| 0.6885 |
Minor |
0.6750 |
Minor |
