6 Oct: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors + Trade Ideas: FXCharts

EURUSD: 1.1709
Preferred Strategy:  All will depend on today’s NFP outcome but the momentum appears to be building in favour of a stronger dollar and I prefer to remain short of the Euro, looking for an eventual head/shoulder target of 1.1560. The short term momentum indicators also look heavy and I will be short heading into the US data and looking to sell into any short term rally, with a SL placed above 1.1800. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1730. SL @ 1.1785, TP @ 1.1650.
24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
1.1800 Minor 1.1698/95 Session low/3 Oct low
1.1785 4 Oct high 1.1661 17 Aug low
1.1765 200 HMA 1.1650 Minor
1.1750 Minor 1.1612 26 July low
1.1735 Minor 1.1603 (50% pivot of 1.1118/1.2091)

Economic data highlights will include:                                                                                                 

German Factory Orders, US Unemployment data/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data



USDJPY: 112.82
Preferred Strategy:  The dollar remains rangebound within the 112.20/113.20 area and this appears set to continue today, while waiting on the NFP figure. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred. Buy UsdJpy @ 112.40. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
114.00 Minor 112.60 Minor
113.70 Minor 112.40 Session low
113.55 Minor 112.32 4 Oct low/29 Sept low
113.19/20/25 3 Oct high /29 Sept high/27 Sept high 112.20 27 Sept low
112.91/93 Session high/4 Oct high 112.05 200 DMA /Daily Tenkan

Economic data highlights will include:  



GBPUSD: 1.3118
Preferred Strategy:  Cable remains heavy because of the turmoil in the Conservative Party and looks as though it has further downside potential although the short term momentum indicators are reaching oversold status. For the time being it is best to stay square, but looking to sell rallies would seem to be the plan as a test of 1.3000 would seem to eventually be on the cards. Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3185. SL @ 1.3225, TP @ 1.3070.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.3235 (23.6% of 1.3656/1.3107) 1.3110 (61.8 of 1.2773/1.3656)/Session low
1.3215 Minor 1.3080 Minor
1.3200 Minor 1.3060 (38.2% of 1.2108/1.3656)
1.3170 Minor 1.3010 100 DMA
1.3145 Minor 1.3000 Psychological

Economic data highlights will include:

BOE’s Haldane Speech



USDCHF: 0.9782
Preferred Strategy:  US$Chf is at the top end of its choppy uptrend at the end of Thursday trade closing just below the new trend high of 0.9795. The dailies still look positive, so, as with yesterday, buying dips remains the favoured plan, looking for an eventual run to/beyond 0.9800. 0.9800/10 will be good resistance but I think eventually we are in for a test of the 200 DMA at 0.9835. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9750. SL @ 0.9690, TP @ 0.9850.
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Resistance Support
0.9880 (50% of 1.0343/0.9420) 0.9750 Minor
0.9850 200 WMA 0.9735 Session low
0.9835 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) 0.9710/08 200 HMA /Rising trend support /4 Oct low
0.9808 30 May high 0.9676 2 Oct low
0.9795 Session high 0.9650 100 DMA


AUDUSD: 0.7794
Preferred Strategy:  The Aud has come under pressure from the miss in yesterday’s Retail Sales and currently sits at the important support at 0.7785. Further losses look likely and I suspect a test of 0.7765 and possibly 0.7725 is not too far away. We may see a minor squeeze but selling into any move to back above 0.7800 seems to be the plan. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7815. SL @ 0.7855, TP @ 0.7725
24 Hour: Mildly Bearish Medium Term: Mildly Bearish
Resistance Support
0.7880 Minor 0.7785 Session low 3 Oct low/18 July low
0.7860 (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7785) 0.7767 100 DMA
0.7840 Minor 0.7750 Minor
0.7825 Minor 0.7725 (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.8125)
0.7810 Minor 0.7700 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

AIG Construction PMI



NZDUSD: 0.7115
Preferred Strategy:  The Kiwi remains heavy and the dailies look as though there is further downside to come, so as with yesterday, selling into strength seems to be the pan. Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7150. SL @ 0.7185, TP @ 0.7050.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7225 2 Oct high/23.6% of 0.7434/0.7157 0.7110 Session low
0.7204 4 Oct high 0.7100 (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558)
0.7180 Minor 0.7085 Minor
0.7165 Session high 0.7070 Minor
0.7140 Minor 0.7050 Minor

By | October 6, 2017
Source: FXCharts

Leave a Reply