| EURUSD: 1.1709 |
| Preferred Strategy: All will depend on today’s NFP outcome but the momentum appears to be building in favour of a stronger dollar and I prefer to remain short of the Euro, looking for an eventual head/shoulder target of 1.1560. The short term momentum indicators also look heavy and I will be short heading into the US data and looking to sell into any short term rally, with a SL placed above 1.1800. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1730. SL @ 1.1785, TP @ 1.1650. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1800 | Minor | 1.1698/95 | Session low/3 Oct low |
| 1.1785 | 4 Oct high | 1.1661 | 17 Aug low |
| 1.1765 | 200 HMA | 1.1650 | Minor |
| 1.1750 | Minor | 1.1612 | 26 July low |
| 1.1735 | Minor | 1.1603 | (50% pivot of 1.1118/1.2091) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Factory Orders, US Unemployment data/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data
…
| USDJPY: 112.82 |
| Preferred Strategy: The dollar remains rangebound within the 112.20/113.20 area and this appears set to continue today, while waiting on the NFP figure. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred. Buy UsdJpy @ 112.40. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20 | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 114.00 | Minor | 112.60 | Minor |
| 113.70 | Minor | 112.40 | Session low |
| 113.55 | Minor | 112.32 | 4 Oct low/29 Sept low |
| 113.19/20/25 | 3 Oct high /29 Sept high/27 Sept high | 112.20 | 27 Sept low |
| 112.91/93 | Session high/4 Oct high | 112.05 | 200 DMA /Daily Tenkan |
Economic data highlights will include:
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3118 |
| Preferred Strategy: Cable remains heavy because of the turmoil in the Conservative Party and looks as though it has further downside potential although the short term momentum indicators are reaching oversold status. For the time being it is best to stay square, but looking to sell rallies would seem to be the plan as a test of 1.3000 would seem to eventually be on the cards. Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3185. SL @ 1.3225, TP @ 1.3070. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3235 | (23.6% of 1.3656/1.3107) | 1.3110 | (61.8 of 1.2773/1.3656)/Session low |
| 1.3215 | Minor | 1.3080 | Minor |
| 1.3200 | Minor | 1.3060 | (38.2% of 1.2108/1.3656) |
| 1.3170 | Minor | 1.3010 | 100 DMA |
| 1.3145 | Minor | 1.3000 | Psychological |
Economic data highlights will include:
BOE’s Haldane Speech
…
| USDCHF: 0.9782 |
| Preferred Strategy: US$Chf is at the top end of its choppy uptrend at the end of Thursday trade closing just below the new trend high of 0.9795. The dailies still look positive, so, as with yesterday, buying dips remains the favoured plan, looking for an eventual run to/beyond 0.9800. 0.9800/10 will be good resistance but I think eventually we are in for a test of the 200 DMA at 0.9835. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9750. SL @ 0.9690, TP @ 0.9850. | |||
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9880 | (50% of 1.0343/0.9420) | 0.9750 | Minor |
| 0.9850 | 200 WMA | 0.9735 | Session low |
| 0.9835 | 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) | 0.9710/08 | 200 HMA /Rising trend support /4 Oct low |
| 0.9808 | 30 May high | 0.9676 | 2 Oct low |
| 0.9795 | Session high | 0.9650 | 100 DMA |
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7794 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud has come under pressure from the miss in yesterday’s Retail Sales and currently sits at the important support at 0.7785. Further losses look likely and I suspect a test of 0.7765 and possibly 0.7725 is not too far away. We may see a minor squeeze but selling into any move to back above 0.7800 seems to be the plan. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7815. SL @ 0.7855, TP @ 0.7725 | |||
| 24 Hour: Mildly Bearish | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7880 | Minor | 0.7785 | Session low 3 Oct low/18 July low |
| 0.7860 | (23.6% of 0.8102/0.7785) | 0.7767 | 100 DMA |
| 0.7840 | Minor | 0.7750 | Minor |
| 0.7825 | Minor | 0.7725 | (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.8125) |
| 0.7810 | Minor | 0.7700 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
AIG Construction PMI
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7115 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi remains heavy and the dailies look as though there is further downside to come, so as with yesterday, selling into strength seems to be the pan. Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7150. SL @ 0.7185, TP @ 0.7050. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7225 | 2 Oct high/23.6% of 0.7434/0.7157 | 0.7110 | Session low |
| 0.7204 | 4 Oct high | 0.7100 | (61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558) |
| 0.7180 | Minor | 0.7085 | Minor |
| 0.7165 | Session high | 0.7070 | Minor |
| 0.7140 | Minor | 0.7050 | Minor |
By October 6, 2017
Source: FXCharts