ANZ Morning Focus: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: O/night NZDUSD 7009/7042 NZDAUD 9228/9276
Today NZDUSD 6970/7040 NZDAUD 9210/9250

· NZD remained in familiar territory on Friday bouncing around our 7000-50 range as the USD made some ground generally
· US Equities opened lower but powered back to close positive on the day with S&P +0.31%: but then..
· The G7 was the main weekend spectator sport with Trump’s unpredictability on show again – just ahead of his NK summit
· Canada (via Trudeau) at a closing press conference called US steel and alu tariffs insulting and pledged retaliatory tariffs (not new)
· Trump – instructed US Reps not to endorse the official Communique as they look at Tariffs on automobiles
· He was responding to Trudeau who he called ‘very dishonest and weak’. Nice
· White House eco advisor Kudlow – called for the Canadian leader to apologise
· Risk off ? Money market fund inflows in the week to June 6 was $55bn – highest since 2013 with the bulk going to the US ($45bn)
· EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier cast doubt on May’s plans. Lot more negotiation and bluffing to come we suspect
· German IP for April declined 1% an underwhelming number with the market at +0.3%
· Bit Coin slid 12% on Sunday as Coinrail (SK exchange) confirmed a ‘cyber intrusion’ in its system. Biggest drop since March

The weekend delivered plenty in the political space with Trump at the G7 at his unpredictable best. The jury is out as to how equities will open but with Trump now on his way to meet Jim Jong Un the stakes are high this week for risk. Add the Fed and ECB and we would expect volatility to creep higher.
NZD opens slightly lower this morning than it closed as G7 headlines suggesting further trade uncertainty. 7050-7100 remains a critical level of resistance and with the even risk this week we still favour NZD lower. We could see opportunities to sell on surprise headlines out of the NK Summit, the Fed or the ECB.
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