AUD: Range-trading expected

From the FXWW Chatroom – We look for a broadly range-bound AUDUSD in the near term, as pressures on the currency from commodity weakness are partly offset by reduced rate cut prospects due to modestly improving domestic conditions.

We expect a marginally larger trade deficit of AUD3.4bn in November (Thursday), given that lower commodity prices are expected to offset stronger export volumes.

However, Australia’s November nominal retail trade (Friday) is likely to show further signs of recovery (Barclays: +0.7% m/m; consensus: 0.4%).

The RBA has said that feedback from “retail conditions had been more favourable recently and a range of other indicators pointed to some strengthening in the pace of household consumption growth since the middle of the year”. Barclays

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