AUDUSD: Aud heavy, waiting on Jobs data by FX Charts

After and early squeeze to 0.7793, the Aud has been under pressure for most of the session today, falling to a low of 0.7693 as the market eyes the  probability of unemployment rising to 6.2%. Jobs created are expected to rise by 5K, while the participation rate is expected to remain stable at 64.8%.Although the Aud does look heavy once again, until the recent trend low of 0.7625 is taken out, we could well be in for more of the choppy consolidation of the last few days.

Below today’s low will meet support at Fibo support at 0.7685 (76.4% of 0.7877/0.7625), which is also the base of a short term channel. A break of this will head back to 0.7625, below which could see the Aud on its way to lower levels, initially supported at 0.7600, but below which, we are looking at the RBA’s stated target at 0.7500. Under there, there is little real support for the Aud until the next major Fibo supports to be seen on the monthly chart (below) at 0.7204 and then at 0.7183 (76.4% of 0.6006/1.1082 and 61.8% of 0.4773/1.1082). If/when seen, this area should be extremely strong support.

On the topside, minor resistance is seen at 0.7730 and then at 0.7750, above which would head to the 200/100 HMA’s at 0.7785/95. Above here, which would need a very good employment number, would head back to 0.7800 and then possibly towards the session high at 0.7841, although this currently looks unlikely. If wrong, above 0.7850 would head towards Friday’s top at 0.7877. Above here, we could be in for a run towards 0.7895 (23.6% of 0.8794/0.7625) and then to the 50% pivot of 0.8230/0.7625 at 0.7925, above which could then see a run back towards the Fibo resistance at 0.7995 (61.8% of 0.8230/0.7625).

I think the overall bias will remain to the downside, but whether the Aud is ready to resume the greater downtrend is questionable given the oversold nature of the daily charts. We shall see.

Economic data highlights will include:

Consumer Inflation Expectation, Employment data.