USD long positions have started to unwind but positioning still considerably long.
• Our BNP Paribas positioning analysis highlights that long USD positioning remains elevated even
as other popular trades were flushed out in September.
• The heightened level of USD positioning components is also notable, particularly the trending sub-indicator that has now reached the maximum level of +50.
• The detailed composition of BNP Paribas positioning analysis for USD continues to constitute a risk for the dollar.
NZD Positioning FX market positioning shows market very short NZD.
• FX market positioning suggests there is potential for NZD to rise.
• Our BNP Paribas Positioning Analysis reports that the NZD is the second largest short among G10 currencies at -22 (on a scale of -50 to +50).
• Previously, short NZD exposure reached a peak of -24 in June 2013 and -22 in August 2013 before
rebounding strongly both times. That same risk exists now.
GBP Positioning Long GBP positioning has been scaled back to neutral levels.
• Long GBP positioning has been scaled back significantly, from a peak of +43 in July to +3.
• GBP positioning no longer appears extreme, suggesting price action is now likely to be determined by macroeconomic fundamentals.
• Strong economic dataflow would likely support a rebound in long GBP positioning.