BOE VIEW: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: BOE: /VIEW: (1/2) Majority of banks see 6-2 vote for unchanged rates, the rest
5-3 except Nomura who see 60% chance of a rate hike:
– DB: Data since last meeting has not made growth/CPI trade off more challenging
nor has is brought much relief either. At least 2 members to vote for rate hike.
– Barclays: Expect MPC to downgrade growth & CPI forecasts and find it difficult
majority of MPC to drift further into hawkish territory and see 6-2 vote.
– Commerzbank: Latest growth and CPI data should prompt MPC to maintain rates on
hold and see vote as 6-2, but likely to keep option of tightening on table.
– Nomura: A reversal of small degree of policy accommodation remains our central
forecast (60%), albeit recognizing a relatively high 40% probability of rates
being left on hold, in which case switch call to Nov meeting.
– Lloyds: Expect 6-2 vote for no change, Aug forecast to be largely unchanged,
growth nudged lower. Likely to repeat ‘limited tolerance’ to above target CPI.
– Goldmans: Expect 5-3 vote to keep rates unchanged. To announce TFS to end in
Feb 2018. Expect 0.2bp cut to 2017 GDP forecast and CPI largely unchanged. Weak
sterling amid domestic political risks tilt the Committee hawkish.

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