The risk off shift has seen commodity-currency weakness develop in today’s Asian session for the AUD, NZD and CAD and Yen strength has picked up. There have been quite a few new TC signals trigger this morning which, in itself, may be more of a warning than anything else. I’ve gone from famine to feast and this abrupt shift has me VERY cautious and, added to this, any relief rally with stocks could undermine ALL of these signals. I had expected more range-bound activity in the lead up to NFP but fear seems to have gripped stock markets and this is filtering through to Forex. Many of the new signals are correlated due to the repeat appearance of the AUD but I note those signals that have trend lines nearby and, therefore, have more of my interest.
EUR/AUD 4hr: another attempt at a LONG TC signal. Will this one work? A hold above the TL would encourage here:
EUR/NZD 4hr: has triggered a LONG signal but I will wait for any break and hold above the TL.
A/U 4hr: may get some ‘Double Bottom’ support so a bit wary with this SHORT signal. Or, maybe it’s just wishful thinking:
A/J 4hr: ditto here:
Kiwi 4hr: this is also trying for another SHORT signal BUT I would want to see a break and hold below 0.625 support first:
U/J 4hr: Yen strength may develop further if the stock carnage continues. A close and hold below the TL is wanted first…although that was little help last time
Remember here that I’m open to a U/J move all the way back to 101.5 IF the S&P500 tests circa 1,600:
USD/CAD 4hr: a new LONG signal due to CAD & commodity weakness here BUT there is only 60 pips worth of space until the major monthly chart 61.8% fib is reached and, so, I’ll be waiting this one out:
GBP/AUD 4hr: a new LONG here too due to AUD weakness BUT I would rather see a TL and triangle breakout here first:
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