Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
Note: As per last couple of weeks, this report could be quickly out of date with Greek new this weekend so please watch the video that I do on Monday after the open for any changes.
Things are not going so well in the Greek negotiations so be prepared for lots of volatility. If things continue to go as poorly as they are, we will be relatively well positioned excepting USDJPY – though the technical pattern is strong. What happens on the open will be important again this week.
Also if you have not checked out these videos, they go into the method I use in this report.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. GBPUSD was brought on Friday on good news, reversing the trend of selling despite good news. Volatile market type so wait for trades off the edges
- Long USD/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. We had a sell-off down to 120 and a recovery of over 200 pips to form a bullish pin candle on the weekly chart. This gives us an entry signal in a sideways market type. Caution here as technicals may go out the window depending on what happens in the euro-zone meetings this weekend.
- Short AUD/USD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. AUD under pressure despite some stabilization in Chinese stocks. I would suggest this stabilization may be short lived and we will see rapid shifts one way or the other. There is also plenty of Chinese data out this week, even if it is good can we trust it, with a government doing everything it can to prop up the stock market? It could be a big week for the AUD.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type is holding and a bullish engulfing pattern suggests the momentum is to the upside. We have plenty of fundamentals to consider here. Yellen indicated on Friday a rate raise this year is still on the cards and of course we have Greece. If this latest bailout package is approved we may get a relief rally, and more importantly Greece may have funds to cover it’s debt for a couple of years so will (hopefully!!!) lose focus as a market driver until then. Failure to get a resolution this weekend may see the pair gap lower tomorrow on the open.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is normal bear. We had our first bullish weekly close for about three months shifting us from a strong to a normal MT. But momentum is still to the downside for now so continue to look short.
- Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues so best to be cautious.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal . Classic persistent sideways market keeps on trucking along.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The pair was up last week, but sold off heavily in the last few hours of trading to form a bearish engulfing pattern. The market type is still bullish but trade with plenty of caution now, and if you have been long it is good idea to take some profits here.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways volatile. Last weeks buy that we mentioned played out, but again, prefer to steer clear in this currency pair until we have some of the event risk taken off the table.
- Short AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. This pair sold off heavily last week before recovering. It has taken out major weekly support and reversed forming a long legged doji. This could be a signal that the pair is about to reverse, but what happens next is highly likely to be event driven. Look short but with extreme caution and wait for confirmation after the open on Monday.
- Short NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is normal bear. We are also at some weekly support and have had a bullish engulfing day. As above the pair is likely to be event driven. Short but with extreme caution.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. This pair is all over the shop for now. We do have a bullish pin candle but lower timeframe MT suggests entering would be risky.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. The market type has turned sideways so despite a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart we prefer to wait.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Technically I am watching for a short opportunity here. Would like to see a weekly reversal pattern before entering.
- Short AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is bull volatile. We have a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart off resistance giving us a short reversal entry here.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is bull normal. There could be a lot of volatility this week in this pair with the amount of data out in China + Greece. In addition the pair is at resistance. Technically I would normally call this a buy but these factors suggest caution is the best option.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Watch for a breakout this week. Could be a decent technical short here.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. -MT is sideways normal. Watch for a bearish engulfing day on Monday to signal a short entry.
- Short NZD/CAD. Trend– MT is sideways normal. We have a short entry here for a sideways market type. Weekly downtrend still intact.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear volatile. After an initial sell-off the price reversed rapidly on Friday turning the market type volatile, which suggests caution.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear volatile. Big reversal day on Friday suggests caution.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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