Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. Despite positive retail sales numbers, the dollar remains pressured by President Trumps response to the protests in Charlottesville. His failure here, has seen business leaders and key supporters abandon him, further questioning his ability to push through his growth plans. Equity markets have been coming off in response to this and this, the issues in North Korea and further terrorist attacks in Spain. This has pressured the dollar and is keeping EUR and JPY strength in play. Central bank heads are meeting at Jackson Hole from 24 to 26 of August so we need to watch for any change in message. For now, we remain focused on North Korea, equities and politics.
- Sell GBP/USD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Data has been mixed out of the UK, but overall the pressure remains subdued on the Bank of England to hike rates anytime soon. Rather, concerns linger around Brexit and with the lack of any market driving data we can expect the bear MT to continue. My preference would be to short GBP on the crosses rather than the USD, given the ongoing dollar weakness.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. The bear market type persists and after an early bounce last week the pair has sold off and made new lows. Stocks markets have been hit hard and volatility has increased markedly. With these factors plus North Korea concerns and a weak dollar mean we should see the pair continue lower. Careful of a technical reversal off support here and a recovery in equities.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The Aussie was supported last week by good employment data and rising commodity prices. Negatives are that the RBA is concerned with the current high price of the AUD and risk-off is typically bad for the AUD. But with the weak USD and the higher yield offered on the AUD, the good data may be enough to drive prices higher from here despite the uncertainty.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. After a fair run up, the currency is consolidating here. The risk-off environment has tended to be positive for the EUR, but the ECB is now expressing concerns that the price is too high. But the improvements in the economic performance of the Euro-zone and the recent hawkish bent of the ECB, along with USD weakness, has meant that any sell-off has thus far been shallow.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. The pair has been selling off the key .7500 level. Importantly, the RBNZ talked about intervention and changed their language to concern about the high value of the NZD. Data in NZ has not been good either with a series of poor dairy auctions. Technically, a bullish engulfing candlestick in this MT is suggestive of some upside.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. USDCHF has sold off on the back of some large swings in Equity markets. We can expect the pair to head lower if the equity sell-off continues.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Bullish news which saw the the price of oil rice by over 3% has helped the USDCAD resume it’s downtrend. We can see this with the formation of a bearish engulfing week. Ideally we would like to see a break below the key 1.24 figure
- Buy EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bull normal. The pair continues to rise and we can keep our eyes fixed on the 0.92 target.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but watch for a shift to a sideways MT here.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell GBP/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Buy EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Sell NZD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait Gold. – MT is bull normal. We have a bearish hammer off weekly resistance so caution required.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell S&P 500. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell DAX. Trend – MT is bear normal . Continue to sell.
- Buy T-Notes Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
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Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.