Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 30 August 2015

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I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The wider range is holding for now and a bullish engulfing candle here presents a buying opportunity. Data has been good out of the UK and it might now be time to accumulate GBP at depressed levels. I do think the better opportunities will be on the crosses.
  • Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. A large pin candle on the weekly chart suggests buying but we are now near the middle of the range so prefer to wait for a lower risk opportunity. Price action on this pair may be dictated by stock market moves, but my personal thoughts are that with US GDP revised to 3.7% last week there is a greater chance of a September lift-off than the market suspects. NFP will be important but unless there is a very negative print then September will certainly remain on the tables.
  • Short AUD/USD. Trend–  MT is bear normal. AUD/USD should continue to come under pressure. The catch .22 for the aussie is that if the Fed does not raise rates it leaves more scope for the RBA to lower them. I suspect that if the equities market sell-off resumes then AUD will head lower, if not then it will still head lower but at perhaps not such a great rate.
  • Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. I would like to be short EURUSD given the fundamental conditions (specifically monetary policy divergence), but the sell-off leaves us sitting close to the middle of the range. Wait for a low risk short entry to appear.
  • Short NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. We are just holding onto a bear MT, but I expect further USD strength and unless there is a very good milk auction this week (unlikely), we should see the pair head lower. I remain fundamentally bearish NZD.
  • Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Like the EURUSD, I would love to be getting long USD on this pair but we need to wait for a low risk opportunity to present itself. This will be off the lower edge of the range or if the pair settles down into a sideways quiet MT.
  • Waiting EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is sideways normal. The opportunity still exits to the long side on this pair with a target of around 1.22 but for now we have a sideways MT so want to wait for a buying signal to present itself.
  • Long USD/CAD. – MT is bull normal. Oil bounced at the end of last week, but the Canadian economy should still feel the pressure over the long-term. Oil will likely now chop around and form a base and we can use this dip in the USDCAD trend to buy.
  • Short EUR/GBP. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. A weekly Pin candle off resistance is a strong bearish signal. Fundamentally we want to be short and the sell-off has not been as sharp in the EURGBP as it was the EURUSD meaning the risk/reward profile of shorting this pair looks better.
  • Waiting AUD/JPY. –  MT is bear volatile. Wait for now.
  • Waiting  NZD/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. I do think this is still a good short but would like to see the downtrend resume first
  • Long GBP/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Bullish engulfing pin candle here provides an excellent long-term risk reward trade. We need to be careful of a resumption in the sell-off in the equity markets.
  • Waiting EUR/JPY. Trend –  MT is sideways normal. Look for the price to head back towards the top of the range.
  • Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is volatile normal. Wait for now.
  • Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait for now.
  • Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Continue to wait for the price to get to 1.0900 and present a buy signal for a long-term opportunity.
  • Short EUR/AUD. Reversal  – MT is bull volatile. Major reversal pattern on the weekly chart suggests the pair is a long-term short. Fundamentals are mixed though so not one to trade at huge size.
  • Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Be cautious of the weekly pin candle, but fundamentally don’t like this as a short.
  • Waiting AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Stay out for now.
  • Waiting  GBP/CAD.  – MT is sideways volatile. Bearish engulfing week suggests caution for now.
  • Waiting EUR/CAD.   -MT is bull volatile. Wait for now.
  • Waiting NZD/CAD.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
  • Long  CAD/JPY. Reversal – MT is bear volatile. Best to stalk a low risk entry on a lower time-frame but we have a powerful pin candle formation off support suggestive of a long-term buying opportunity. Should do well if oil and stocks continue to recover.
  • Waiting CHF/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. We have a technical buying opportunity but give price action on the crosses don’t have conviction in it.
  • Waiting GBP/CHF. – MT is bear normal. Technically a bear normal, but shorting here does not make sense given the environment. Suspect we will see a sideways MT emerge.

Analysis to read:

Marc Chandler

Jim Langlands

Economic calendar for the week ahead:

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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