Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Buy DXY Trend – MT is buy normal. The dollar index continues to rise on the back of expectations for a rate hike this year and optimism around US tax reform. On Friday we had a weak headline non-farm payroll number but market participants looked beyond that to the rising hourly earnings and low unemployment rate. All in all everything is lining up for another rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December data-wise. This should continue to support the dollar. There is some concern that there will be a North Korea missile test this weekend which saw the DXY end the week on a weak note, but this should not impact the emerging trend unless the situation escalates further.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The pair sold off heavily, switching from a bull to bear MT in the space of a week. This rapid shift was due to political concerns around Prime Minister May’s leadership. There was also some weaker data that is not supportive of the BOE’s new more hawkish stance.
- Buy USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Some caution needs to be had as Friday’s hammer means a minor double top has formed. The pair sold off on North Korea missile test concerns. If you are long I would suggest some profit taking here but otherwise we can continue to buy if the trend resumes in the new week.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is sideways normal. The Aussie continues to sell off, firstly on the back of poor data and then on USD strength. Metal prices have been falling and technically we have a double top in place on the pair. These factors point to a continuation of the downtrend.
- Sell EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Despite the bear MT the downtrend in the euro has been relatively tame so far. There have been political concerns around Catalonia ceding from Spain and the ECB has been a bit more dovish than expected. The next hurdle for bears will be for the price to close below 1.1650.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The kiwi has broken out into a bear MT. There are ongoing growth concerns for the NZ economy and no government has yet been formed after the election two weeks ago. It should not be long now, but with USD strength in play and not much to prop up the Kiwi, the pair has sold off.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. We are sitting at major resistance and a large bearish Doji candlestick has formed due to expectations of a North Korea missile launch. This could be a contrarian selling opportunity, but I prefer to just wait as we have emerging USD strength and the market has been buying the dips caused by North Korea worries. If you are long, now would be a prudent time to take some profits. Watch for CHF opportunities vs AUD and NZD.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The pair has broken out into a weak bull MT on the back of USD strength and the belief that the BOC will hold off on another rate hike this year. Employment data was relatively good on Friday. This is a low conviction buy call at this point in time.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bear volatile. The pair was brought rapidly last week because of GBP weakness. Wait for now.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is bull volatile. At key resistance and weekly reversal pattern has formed.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell Gold. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait Oil. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy DAX. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy T-Notes. Contrarian – MT is bear normal. Look to buy.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.