We have month-end activity today, Chinese Manufacturing PMI data on Saturday and further Greek-debt IMF related negotiations to get through before the next trading week starts. Stepping out to the daily FX charts can be rather revealing and is the topic of this blog update today. In fact, those traders bearish on the Kiwi might be wise to step out to the weekly chart to assess the view from there as it just might surprise.
USDX 4hr: we got the bullish Flag breakout on the 4hr chart:
USDX weekly: it is looking like we might end up with the flag break, test and continuation scenario…for the time being at least:
EURX weekly: keep an eye on 96 and trend line support:
E/U daily: what’s the recent monthly trend here?
E/J daily: and here?
A/U daily: trend seems down BUT beware shorting of ahead of w/e Chinese Manufacturing PMI. Any upside data surprise could support the A/U:
A/J daily: biggish moves but still range-bound:
Cable daily: trend up but over recent months BUT consolidating during the last month:
Kiwi daily: trend down BUT, as for the A/U, beware of any upside surprise with w/e Chinese Manufacturing PMI. I’m not discounting the possibility that this could be evolving into a large Bear Flag but I have no evidence of a further bearish breakdown just yet:
Kiwi weekly: I noted last week how the Kiwi had printed a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted Hammer’ candle and to watch for any potential upside follow through. The Kiwi is a bit higher for the week, although not too convincing at this stage, but it is worth keeping in mind if you’re thinking of jumping in short just now:
U/J daily: consolidating with an upward bias. I did receive a new TC signal but it hasn’t gone too far. The daily candle closed within the triangle so no triangle breakout yet:
Loonie daily: trend up but price has stalled at major 1.30 resistance:
GBP/AUD daily: trend up. Watch for any upside surprise with w/e Chinese data though as this could boost the AUD and trigger a long awaited pullback here:
GBP/NZD daily: trend up but has recently being consolidating under a major monthly bear trend line. As for the GBP/AUD, watch for any upside surprise with w/e Chinese data though as this could boost NZD and trigger a long awaited pullback here too: