FX for the 2nd week of July: TC

Last week: The US 4th July Holiday and wait for NFP kept things a bit quiet for part of the week although there were some decent trend line breakout trades, albeit fewer than usual. The current markets are ones best for waiting for trend line breakouts that evolve with new TC signals.

Trend line breakout trades from last week: These trade results were summarized here, here and here.

  • USD/JPY: 90 pips.
  • AUD/JPY: 40 pips.
  • USD/CNH: 160 pips.
  • USD/TRY: 900 pips.
  • EUR/USD: 70 pips and another 70 pips later in week.
  • EUR/AUD: 100 pips.
  • EUR/NZD: 100 pips.
  • Silver: 200 pips but in that well noted spike move.
  • EUR/JPY: 100 pips (on Fri)
  • UsD/JPY: 70 pips (on Fri)

This week:

  • US$: the US$ closed higher for the week but so too did the EUR$!. A review of the FX Indices can be found through this link.
  • EUR/USD: the EUR/USD is just 100 pips away from the major 1.15 S/R level; a level that has kept it in check for the last 2 1/2 years so watch for any new make or break from here.
  • GBP/JPY: this pair is in focus this week as it tests a 22-month bear trend line and 147 S/R.
  • G20: watch for any comments from the G20 meetings to impact market open.
  • NB: this is just a brief update as I am away for the weekend.

Calendar:

  • Mon 10th: CNY CPI & PPI.
  • Tue 11th: GBP Inflation Report Hearings.
  • Wed 13th: GBP Employment data. CAD Interest Rate & BoC Press Conference. USA Crude Oil Inventories. Fed Chair Yellen testifies.
  • Thurs 14th: USD PPI, Weekly Unemployment Claims & Fed Chair Yellen testifies.. CNY Trade Balance.
  • Fri 15th: USD CPI & Retail Sales.

Forex: keep an eye on the 4hr chart patterns this week for any new momentum-based trend line breakout.

EUR/USD: note how price action is nearing the major 1.15 S/R level. This has been resistance for over 2 1/2 years and so it could become a bit choppy if it reaches this zone. I would expect this level to be tested at least a few times if broken.

EUR/JPY: there was a bullish wedge breakout after NFP last Friday but now watch the 130 level, near the weekly 50% fib and monthly 200 EME, for any new make or break. The weekly 61.8% fib is up near 135 and would be the obvious target for any bullish breakout.

AUD/USD: watch the 4hr chart triangle but also keep an eye on the 0.76 and, then, 0.77 level.

AUD/JPY: watch for any make or break at 87 and, if bullish, then 89:

NZD/USD: 0.73 is the level to watch here:

GBP/USD: looks a bit like a Bull Flag so watch the Flag trend lines for any new breakout:

USD/JPY: watch the 4hr triangle and for any move to the weekly chart’s upper trend line:

GBP/JPY: note the test of the major 22-month bear trend line. Watch for any new make or break near 147 S/R:

GBP/AUD: I’m still struggling with this pair. The weekly chart looks bullish but the 4hr chart maybe not so:

GBP/NZD: watch the 4hr Flag trend lines:

EUR/AUD: watch the 4hr chart trend lines for any make or break:

EUR/NZD: watch the 4hr chart trend lines for any make or break:

USD/CNH: watch the 4hr chart trend lines for any make or break:

USD/TRY: I think this might be on for some more mean reversion and would look to the 61.8% fib:

USD/SEK: watch the 4hr chart trend lines for any new make or break following the break of the weekly support trend line:

CAD/JPY: watch the 89 level for any make or break:

Commodities:

Gold 4hr:

Silver 4hr: messy at the moment:

Oil 4hr:

Stock Index:

ASX-200 4hr:

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